In Five Words – Why The Markets Really Continue to Go Up

Keith Fitz-Gerald Jul 15, 2016
65 

People ask me all the time…

…how can the markets continue to go up when everything else is going to hell in a handbasket?

Believe it or not, I can explain the situation in five words.

You can understand it in two.

You can do something about it in one.

This may wind up being one of the shortest Total Wealth columns I’ve ever written.

And the most profitable.

Here’s what it all boils down to.

Five Words that Show You’re Better Off “Long than Wrong”

None of the headlines you see today cast doubt on the fact that the world is a dangerous, complicated, and nasty place.

…earnings stink

…the geopolitical situation is terrible

…terrorism is on the rise

…Europe’s a wreck

…politicians have no adult supervision in Washington

It’s no wonder that U.S. stock funds just registered their 17th consecutive week of withdrawals, totaling $6.1 billion as of July 8, according to Lipper.

Investors have withdrawn more than $133 billion from global equity funds so far this year – nearly $80 billion of that coming from U.S. equities alone, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data.

Yet…… the rally continues??!!

Yep.

The S&P 500 is back to all-time highs, the Dow hit an all-time high yesterday, and the Nasdaq just brushed past the critical 5,000-point threshold.

Why?

In five words, as promised…

…”Central banks continue to buy.”

Right now global central bank buying is the highest we’ve seen since 2013.

We’ve talked about that in recent weeks as part of the Brexit discussions when I told you that the bet would change from one of downside risk to policy-induced upside.

Now, we can see it too, in this chart from Citi Research.

Highest-Purchases

So what does this mean for your money?

You’re better off being “long than wrong,” because central bankers are going to do everything they can to inflate asset prices by riding to the rescue once again.

Every central bank in the world is in on this. Yellen, Kuroda, Draghi… they’ve all got their hands in the cookie jar now, which means that stocks and bonds are going to run higher at the same time.

Therefore, the question is not do I buy like most people think… but rather, what.

Fortunately, this isn’t complicated.

First, you want to buy the best stocks you can afford.

Most investors struggle with this concept because they don’t know how to define “best” like we do. So they doom themselves to subpar returns and never achieve the kinds of big profits they crave, let alone deserve.

Start by understanding the Six Unstoppable Trends we talk about so frequently because they’re backed by trillions of dollars in spending that central bankers cannot screw up and Wall Street cannot hijack.

Then, make a list based on which companies produce truly “must-have” goods and services that the world cannot live without. Put those with the fortress-like balance sheets, strong business models, and proven results at the top of your list.

Everything else is a risk you don’t want or need at the moment.

When it comes to bonds, stick to U.S. government paper and highly-rated corporates. People fear a rate hike, but what they should be fearing is missing out on a rally.

Some 75% or more of those very same bonds I’ve just mentioned never get sold. They’re owned by institutions, pension funds, and other parties who need the income and the stability they provide.

Like you, those big buyers are more concerned about the return of their money than the return on their money, especially now that central bankers are back to their old tricks.

Make that work in your favor instead of trying to fight it like many investors are right now.

And if you’re worried that the markets could suddenly reverse course?

That’s nothing out of the ordinary.

Millions of investors are fretting over it, but that’s what prudent risk management is all about and why we talk about it so frequently. Depending on your risk tolerance and financial objectives, you can use everything from trailing stops to inverse funds – and even options – as a means of not only protecting your capital but your profits, too.

Nobody doubts there will be a day of reckoning. Let’s get that off the table right now.

Odds are, it’s just not tomorrow.

And if you just can’t get the notion that the sky is falling out of your head?

I hear that a lot.

Many people started saving late for retirement and feel like they can’t take the time to wait for a recovery, let alone grow their money.

I beg to differ.

There are plenty of ways to profit in a bear market if you know what to look for and I will show you exactly what those are if and when that day comes.

In the meantime, remember that one word I told you about earlier?

Here it is…

…buy

A single share if you have to…

Hold your nose if needed…

Take a deep breath and make your move.

You have to be “in to win,” and central bankers make that very clear.

I’ll be with you every step of the way.

Until next time,

Keith

65 Responses to In Five Words – Why The Markets Really Continue to Go Up

  1. Mark D. Smith says:

    Spot on Keiith

    • Keith says:

      Thanks for the kind words, Mark!

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  2. Robert in Vancouver says:

    I totally agree with the article. Stocks go up the most when they are climbing a wall of worry, like they’re doing now. That means stocks going up while most investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting for an ”all clear” signal that it’s safe to buy. Of course an all clear signal never comes but eventually people start buying because they keep seeing the market going up and they realize they are missing out. Right now most big and small investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting for an ”all clear” signal even though stocks have been going up for the last few weeks. So that means there’s lots of upside left in the stock market, in fact, the move up has barely started because hardly anyone has been buying.

    • Keith says:

      Very well put, Robert. I think you’ve got not only a great understanding of market mechanics, but of sentiment, too.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  3. Mary Muennig says:

    Dear Sir,
    Thank you for that information/conversation. I appreciated your input.
    Thank you,
    Mary Muennig

    • Keith says:

      Thank you for your kind words and, please, call me Keith.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  4. CAMILO QUELQUEJEU says:

    Woould it not be safer, wiser and more profitable to buy Gold Bullion ?

    After all, it is already up 25% since the beginning of the year, and bound to go up !

    Or if you are a risk taker, buy shares of Gold Mining projects ? Camilo Quelquejeu

    • Keith says:

      Good morning Camilo.

      You raise an interesting point. However, here’s the trick…when you buy bullion you are just buying metal. When you buy stocks, you are buying growth. The former may or may not increase in price but the latter almost always will as growth continues.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  5. R. J. says:

    Kieth. You suggested GTN more than once as a buy. It’s more or less flat-lined. What’s your take on this?

    • Keith says:

      Hello RJ.

      I am not especially concerned because quarterly revenues do not yet reflect the rising rhetoric between two candidates. In other words, the real spending hasn’t yet started.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  6. Brian Ridgeway says:

    Thank you.

    • Keith says:

      You’re very welcome Brian.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  7. Michael B says:

    Check out the Dow Theory Breakdown that has occurred in the midst of this. The market is set up for a big fall, since the Dow continues to make new highs and the transportation index highs are at progressively lower levels. This pattern occurred in 2008 just prior to the crash. When there is realization that the governments are unable to engineer growth and a real recovery with all this spending, then the dominoes will fall and this debt fueled government created crisis will come into full view.

    • Keith says:

      Hello Michael.

      I think you are spot on but the question we’ve all got to ask ourselves is “what happens in the meantime?”

      As long as central bankers believe they can stimulate their way out of this mess, it’s better to be long than wrong lest you risk missing growth…completely fabricated or not.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  8. Ronald Davis says:

    Kieth,
    Do you have a list of stocks with “must have goods and services” that also have fortress like balance sheets, strong business models and proven results
    Please forward to me as part of the service I am paying for.
    With much thanks,
    Ron

    • Keith says:

      Good morning Ron.

      Actually, I’ve got several lists. Some of them are found in our archives right here at Total Wealth while others are included as part of the paid services we offer. Please contact customer service when you get a chance to figure out which updates you may be missing.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  9. Tin Myaing Thein says:

    I have been reading your post and since I have no experience in buying or selling, I don’t know how to buy. I have a broker who doesn’t want to buy what I proposed and he says I can do it on my own but I don’t know how. Could you break this down in a few steps for me? Thank you.

    • Keith says:

      Good morning Tin.

      I’d be happy to. the trick is that doing so is beyond a simply reply today. Please contact customer service and get your hands on something called the Money Map Method where I break down our entire approach, how to buy and sell, plus much more. Last time I checked, it’s offered as a special when you sign up for our sister service, the Money Map Report. Normally, I wouldn’t make such a blunt sales pitch, but the Money Map Report, just like all our services, is fully guaranteed in the event your decide it’s not for you.

      Also, please take a few minutes to go through our Total Wealth archives. There are dozens of articles that can help you get started.

      As for your broker, there may be several things going on. Every financial professional has a duty to their clients to find appropriate investments based on their client’s individual risk tolerance, experience and objectives. He or she may be trying to protect you based on what you have described.

      Keep me posted and, of course, keep reading. I will do my very best to help you gain the experience and knowledge you need, too. I want all Total Wealth members to have the knowledge they need to succeed!

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  10. Roger Ramsay says:

    In the end, I agree ( for what it’s worth)! The contrarian concept to building wealth pretty much insists that you rush in when chicken little tells everyone to rush out. I aim to follow my own goals and principles, take emotion out of the game insofar as this is possible, and follow educated guided advice. But in the end I know, I cannot change my fortune, generate a legacy for generations, and make a difference, if I do not put some money on the line and stop my bulls**t inner monologue from making me hoard what little I have with some bank. Play to WIN, not to NOT LOSE! The difference in mindset is all the difference in the world.
    Thanks Keith.

    • Keith says:

      Thanks for sharing Roger.

      I wish more investors understood what you’ve just expressed because they’d be far more profitable for doing so. It’s the inner demons that we must overcome to focus on the profitable, not just the probable or even the possible.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  11. George says:

    Good article Keith

  12. Sivaji Sirimalle says:

    I can’t thank enough for encouragement.

    • Keith says:

      Good morning Sivaji and thank you!

      I work very hard to convey the upside that guides us all to the wealth we want and am thrilled that you find what I have to say encouraging because that’s exactly how I feel when I write. There’s always profits out there…if you know where to look.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  13. oochiemama says:

    mmmmmm… Turkey coup….
    waiting this one out with 20 to 70% gains in gold mining stocks while the EU, ECB, and rest of failing policies/countries figure this one out…

    very much appreciate the KFG’s Money Map and the Money Morning crew which has save my retirement from repeats of 2000 and 2008…

    • Keith says:

      Good morning and thanks for the kind words!

      I am thrilled to hear that we’ve been able to help and that you have a more secure financial future for having been and continuing to be part of the Family. In fact, you made my day and I cannot wait to share your comments with our team.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  14. H. Glenn Wheeler says:

    Thanks for your comments and insights—I had to take a few notes. The reality of change both—makes us sick—and makes us hopeful. Thank you.

    • Keith says:

      You are very welcome Glenn .

      Admittedly, I struggle occasionally with the hope part some days, too. As a father, I cannot believe I have to raise my sons in a world that’s a challenging as ours is. But, as an investor, I know that chaos always produces fabulous profits…so I want to stay in the game because that’s the path to profits!

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  15. YUKI says:

    I love your service and i learn a lot from you. and make money on the way. thank you

    • Keith says:

      Good morning Yuki and thank you for the kind words.

      You made my day and I appreciate your comments tremendously. I will continue to do the best I can to ensure your trust in me is well placed.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  16. H. Craig Bradley says:

    Hi Keith:

    Got a question about today’s markets and our ongoing Bull Market.
    What is you opinion of those investors (institutional) that primarily invest (concentrate) in the current top three sectors of the market based on Relative Strength and Momentum Trends ? So far this year, that’s been Fixed Income (TLT), Precious Metals (Commodities), and U.S. Equities ( Primarily Utilities and Materials Sectors). I would very much appreciate your reply and point-of-view on this. I doubt you ever get questions like this from the retail side.

    Another related aspect of global markets today has to be international capital flows, especially given the impact of Central Banks as liquidity creators and hence, the ultimate enablers of our Bull Market. Seems unending, yet the institutions actually panicked into precious metals and mining companies big time in Jan-Feb upwards to today. Once they see something and start a strong trend like that, its unlikely to go back down to where it was last year. More likely to pull-back and partially rotate out into U.S. Equities, but not all market sectors. Any comment here?

    • Keith says:

      Good morning Craig.

      These are all excellent and insightful questions, as usual – thanks for asking!

      Relative strength and momentum are both viable, time tested ways to invest. The key is appropriate risk management because, as you rightly pointed out, flows can change. That means any investor using relative strength and momentum has to be prepared to “go with the flow” rather than against it. That sounds easy enough but actually can prove to be quite difficult for most investors because, by implication, that also means long term buy and manage scenarios go by the wayside.

      As for flows themselves, that’s my take. The rotation will be into US equities if for no other reason than they’re the best looking horse in the glue factory at the moment. But price, though, can fall. What you want to be careful of with this line of thinking is the implied price maintains a level simply because it’s gotten there already. That doesn’t necessarily match up with how an institutional trader thinks about things; they’re more likely to look at allocation and other quantitative matters then work out pricing as a secondary input. Retail – meaning most individual investors – tend to start with price.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  17. Will S. says:

    There’s an old saying…
    Those on the inside, need those on the outside to sell to…
    So ask yourself… Are YOU on the inside? or the outside?

    That should tell you all you need to know. Or you could use this:
    Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful, when others are greedy… so says Warren Buffet.

    Time to be cautious IMHO… 25% in Cash, 25% in equities, 25% in Bullion, and the other 25% for property, which is, like equities, still being bid up by those with too much money and too little sense, but I suspect, this autumn, that will change. and bullion will probably start the mammoth climb, we’ve all been waiting for – the Lehman moment when a major EU Bank goes under could be months away – the BIS has issued warnings, the IMF has issued warnings,

    Bullion Dealers have issued warnings, and major commentators on the Bullion/Economic/Financial sector have also predicted the coming crisis… just nobody knows exactly when…
    Black Swan event(s)?

    Brexit negototiations?
    Brexit application?
    Major Bank collapse?
    Saudi Arabia erupts into internal strife?
    Saudi-Arabia begins selling oil for Renminbi/Yuan?
    Russian retaliation for provocations by U.S.?
    NATO Collapse triggered by to Turkey’s internal problems?
    India/Pakistan strife over water? (perhaps caused by a major drought)
    China in military situation with neighbours over South China Sea?
    A.N.Other… Sub-Saharan Africa problem – Nigeria/Angola/Namibia or Venezuala crisis as oil prices fall back to sub $40?

    We live in interesting times…

    W.

    • Keith says:

      Hello Will.

      I think you’ve got not only a sharp eye on the markets but a sharp wit, too! Both are critical to profits in today’s markets.

      Interesting times, indeed!

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith

  18. H. Craig Bradley says:

    Keith is away from his desk. No Replies.

  19. Keith says:

    Hello everybody. I’ve been in Japan on family business that’s kept me from being as active as I would like. Please note my responses inserted above and thanks for your understanding. – Keith 🙂

  20. Peter Schemer says:

    Keith:
    My first time replying, love your advice and personal travel pieces. Question on Ekso, I’m in per your recommendation and of coarse there was the big jump lately, and up date on it? Also a rumor that they have a major competitor that might effect their growth?
    Thanks again for the great insight and advice that helps me protect and grow my family’s wealth.
    Peter Schermer

    • Keith says:

      Hello Peter and thanks for the kind words. I’m very, very lucky to love what I do and that’s because of people like you who are a part of the Total Wealth Family.

      On to Ekso…I’ll have an update shortly. As for a major competitor, that’s a great development if it’s true because it means the market is expanding and there’s still more profit potential.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  21. E. B. Baldwin says:

    When gold hits $5000 and silver hits $200 per ounce, or whatever; why should I sell? I would only sell what was necessary to survive. I know that the idiots in charge will continue their same insane policies, and debase whatever currency, or new currency they are abusing. In addition; I’d have to pay a capital gains tax on my profits, or maybe a 90% confiscation tax.

    • Keith says:

      Howdy and that’s a terrific question.

      I can think of all sorts of reasons to sell but the biggest is that a huge increase means your risk is increasing by a corresponding amount. Most people think of risk only in terms of downside but anything that increases dramatically in price means the risk that you “lose it all” is rising, too. So tax or not, there’s a compelling reason to take money off the table.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  22. James Timmons says:

    What happens to a long term PUT if the underlying stock issuer is bought out by a larger company. What is the appropriate mechanism for exiting the trade?

    • Keith says:

      Hello James.

      That depends on the type of buyout: cash, all stock, or some combination of stock plus cash, for example.

      If the buyout is all cash, put owners receive cash if the buyout price is below the strike price.
      If the buyout is all stock, put owners will see their options changed to reflect the new entity at the same strike but reflect a change in the number of shares based on the buyout’s terms
      If the buyout is a combination of stock plus cash, you’ll see a combination of adjustment plus cash depending on the strike price.

      Unfortunately, there is no single best way to exit because what happens to the options is unique to each buyout. If you want to play it safe, simply “sell to close” ahead of a given deal’s approval and effective date.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  23. Lee Crain says:

    Right now (07/29/2016), stocks and their indexes are high and the upward momentum of everything seems to be stalling.

    Do you think there will be a correction in the stock market before it takes off again to the upside? If so, how big a correction and for how long?

    • Keith says:

      Hello Lee.

      Yes, I think a correction would be welcome but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s likely. Central bank buying remains at very high levels and that’s providing a lot of artificial support. 3-5% wouldn’t be out of line given recent data.

      If that bothers you like it does many investors, remember that “buy low and sell high” is the path to profits.

      I’ll be with you every step of the way.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  24. John Peters says:

    Are you still bullish on ESKO?

  25. JOHN says:

    Keith,

    I would like to receive your Total Wealth news letter.

    thank you, John

    • Keith says:

      Hello John.

      I think there’s a sign up box on every page and a link in every email.

      I’d be honored to see you become a member of the Total Wealth Family.

      Best regards, Keith 🙂

  26. Peter says:

    Can mechanical trading systems work consistently over time?

    • Keith says:

      Hi Peter.

      Yes, but with one important caveat – they have to have some sort of “learning” capacity built in. The most effective also involve non-linear calculations to adjust to the markets changes.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  27. DegsTradingPost says:

    I’m Craig, the contrarian,
    I’m neck deep; all in Silver, in any form I can find. I’m so monolithically focused; I fear I’ve lost touch with the whole picture. There’s a lot of money on the sidelines; the question is, where will it flow and under what possible circumstance?; going forward.

    Might as well be a sooth-sayer in the current marketplace; is my take on it. There’s no certainty about it. Yet a stance must be taken while charts teeter at milestone levels. Where fear has taken roost, I put my lion’s share on the Hedge, instead of the normal (other) way round. These times seems to demand it. I’ve gone beyond Bullishness to Pig-ishness (Ha Ha). While Silver is always a caveat side mention, it’s my focus. I look towards your well presented input on stocks to balance my whole view of whats going on and how to survive it.
    Thanks, I’ll be reading with an open mind to be convinced.
    Craig

    • Keith says:

      Hello Craig and welcome to the Total Wealth Family!

      There’s nothing wrong with being a contrarian but based on your self-described concentration in silver, I’d urge you to rethink the concentration of risk you’ve taken on. Silver or not, what you don’t want to be is long the wrong stuff if the market remains illogical longer than you can remain solvent.

      I talk about that regularly here in Total Wealth, incidentally.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  28. Patrick Herzog says:

    Excellent overview of current situation. And a momentous change since 1980 when I first invested in stocks, a time when it seemed like investing was only for the rich (I was single, had my first full-time job and was saving money). If only I had the common sense to continue monthly deposits into the burgeoning field of mutual funds.
    In recent years I have been whipsawed between the rising markets and the poor fundamentals that support them, thinking we would see a reset and return to the ways markets reacted in my early days of investing, Besides central banking intervention, how much does the general complacency of most everyone to world events affect the market? Events that used to shake the markets now only create a blip. Perhaps our constant immersion in global media makes it seem like the sky can never fall.

    • Keith says:

      Hello Patrick.

      It would appear you and I are contemporaries and have lived/invested/traded through many of the same events.

      What you’re really asking about speaks to the nature of behavioral finance. My take is that it’s not so much complacency as it is a sense of inevitability that’s worked it’s way into global markets. For some that’s an insurmountable problem, but to me that’s merely another profitable opportunity based on psychology.

      I’ll prepare a column or two in the months ahead that speaks more to this. Be sure and let me know how I do when it’s published!

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  29. michael grant says:

    Harry Dent says gold will crash going into 2017, Porter Stansberrry says we are heading into a new bull market as does Larry Edelson. so which is it? what direction is gold going?

    • Keith says:

      Hello Michael.

      My take is that it’s going to be an upward grind with periodic spurts – meaning a slow build of prices rather than the rapid climb others see. As such, it’s no longer an optional investment.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  30. KIETHAM SINGH says:

    Hello
    Should DB collapse what will happen to the investors in their ETFs? How safe is our monies?

    Thanks

    Kieth

    • Keith says:

      Hello Kietham.

      In theory, not much. ETF assets are held by custodians.

      That said, the much bigger issue is what happens when an ETF company that’s part of a bigger universal banking company and an investment bank that also has a custody and fund administration operation fails. And nobody knows.

      I wouldn’t spend too much time worrying about it though for the simple reason that if there’s a fire sale and everything goes to hell, getting money out of your ETF will probably be the least of everybody’s worries.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  31. David von Zuben says:

    Hi Keith – given the central bank buying and current low interest rate environment do you think the stock market will see a rebirth of the Nifty Fifty period of the late 1960’s when price earnings multiples were in the 50’s and 60’s? …. (oh no I’m showing my age). Thanks very much

    • Keith says:

      Hello David and thanks for asking.

      That’s a very interesting question and one that I have not thought about before. No doubt it’s possible but I have to wonder quantitatively if we’d get there. The reason is that there’s simply so much arbitrage now that I think prices will hold at lower levels as a function of liquidity if that makes sense.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  32. Bill Holt says:

    Here’s my question for the four gentlemen mentioned in an email from Michael Lewitt:
    I am a lower middle class person without the means to invest in stocks or buy gold. My wife and I have a few thousand dollars in annuities. What I’m wondering is, if the monetary system collapses and paper money becomes worthless, what are our best options? What happens to all the coined money? Thank you for your time.

    • Keith says:

      Hello Bill and thanks for asking.

      You’re not alone and hopefully being here at Total Wealth will give you the knowledge and confidence you need to invest accordingly with what you can.

      To your question…history shows that three things will become “currency” if there’s a total break down: food, bullets, and medicine. Survival becomes the priority because value goes out the window.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith 🙂

  33. William in Whitehall says:

    What gives? Most everyone is talking about the big crash coming, but all seem to have that special stock pick to recommend. If there is a crash won’t everything take a hit including the “pick”. It seems as though everyone is talking out of both sides of their mouth.

    • Keith says:

      Hello William.

      It depends on who you’re talking about.

      Most wannabes, for example, have never managed money for a living so they’re offering perspective based on experience they quite literally don’t have. Fear is about the only way they can stir up interest, and the “picks” they’re recommending are in isolation.

      The people you want to pay attention to concentrate on upside even in the face of a potential market collapse because they know that proper risk management is the key to sustainable, longer term, and much larger profits. And, not surprisingly, the “picks” they’re recommending are almost always part of a bigger picture and investment strategy.

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    You can see more at invisco.com/microgrid. I am looking for investors.
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