Your Questions (& My Answers) on Predicting the Stock Market

Keith Fitz-Gerald Sep 11, 2019
12 

WOW!

I had no idea what would happen when I wrote to you last month regarding my newest research and my efforts to predict the stock markets.

I was nervous, uncertain and, frankly, not sure if you’d be interested. Most of all, though, I didn’t want to waste your time.

Turns out I was apprehensive about nothing.

Your reaction has been overwhelming.

So, here’s an update!

There are times when “thank you” doesn’t cut begin to cut it, and this is one of those times.

I am deeply impacted by kind words you expressed and the support you offered when I told you what I’ve been up to a few weeks ago.

Were we in Japan, I’d be bowing very deeply where that is a sign of respect even today, centuries after the custom began. Heck, I probably will still bow deeply when we hold our first seminars on this stuff down the line.

Not get all mushy, but you place a lot of trust in me and that does not go unnoticed. In fact, that’s something I take very, very seriously.

That’s why I’ll spend hours with members of the Total Wealth Family at seminars around the world long after the crowds have gone home, why I’ve been known to divert a motorcycle trip 1,000 miles or more to enjoy dinner with newfound friends in the Total Wealth Family, why I spend hours with our customer service teams listening to your input when I’m in the building and, why I’ll happily answer any question you’ve got anywhere in the world to the best of my ability.

I want to give you the very best I have to offer because that’s how I roll.

Speaking of which, let’s tackle a few of the questions that have come up so far.

Q: Is there a test group and can I sign up?

Not yet. I’m still working out a few kinks related to timing, delivery, security, confidentiality etc. In the meantime, please enjoy the research right here, in Total Wealth, for free.

[UPDATE] What 5G Means For Investors

Q: This sounds similar to research being done by Tom Gentile. Is it?

No – this is very different. Tom is a genius and a great friend. His Money Calendar involves probabilistic calculations based on historical data and pattern analysis applied via carefully researched screens he’s developed. What I am talking about involves forward-looking calculations and is potentially an entirely new form of non-linear neural network used exclusively for price prediction.

Q: This will be great, if it works??!!

That’s a fair statement. People have been trying to predict the stock markets since the dawn of time with very little success. In fact, some very smart people are convinced it cannot be done. To my way of thinking, though, that’s all the more reason to try.

My research has centered on predicting two critical components to date – direction and price – and we’re potentially getting very close to being able to do that with an unprecedented degree of accuracy.

Funny story…

Early this past summer my data scientists came to me with some fantastic results. I glanced at the stack of paper put on my desk then grinned, saying that the “joke was over,” and asked for the real data run.

Long story short, they said that WAS the real data run and that those WERE the real results – at which point, my jaw dropped when I realized just how close we might be to actually solving this puzzle.

There’s still a long way to go but, then again, there always is when it comes to breakthroughs.

Q: How will we make money with this?

That’s still very much up in the air. Preliminary data suggest that the analysis could be applied to everything from tick level data to multi-year projections. That means it’s potentially usable by investors and day traders alike – with no profit-bleeding crossover between the two. That’s never been done before to my knowledge.

Honestly, though, what we do with this depends largely on you. So, let me flip the tables around and ask…

what would be most helpful to you?

[CRITICAL] You Better See This Now (Tom Is Telling All)

Q: How does the model handle headline risk or the randomness of a Tweet?

I’m spending a lot of time on this very question right now. Our President seems to be Tweeter in Chief, and his opponents seem equally determined to release a storm of anti-tweet tweets in response – both can move prices in an instant.

That seems insurmountable but there’s very clearly a silver lining if you know what to look for.

Headlines and tweets tend to introduce randomness that merely widens the “window” being evaluated which means that investors can potentially be completely wrong about market expectations yet still structure investing choices in such a way that you remain profitable.

I’ll explain more about tactics that can help you do that at a later date.

Q: How often do you “run” new analysis?

We can run it any time, but there are two reports at present – a “daily” showing price projections in advance for any given 24-hour period, and a “weekly” showing price projections for the next five trading days that we usually run Friday evenings, after the markets close.

Here’s a shot of that “run,” from the September 6, 2019 showing projected prices for the week of September 9th through September 13th.

Interestingly, this report shows a fall off Monday, not the rally that was widely expected by most investors after last week’s powerful, multi-day winning streak (which is what happened). Not coincidentally, it also shows a push higher that could be underway by the time you read this (but after I’m writing it on Monday afternoon).

This is where it gets greyer than I’d like.

New record highs are usually a self-fulfilling prophecy especially when the markets “need” new highs like they do at present. And, effectively, this model confirms that.

What catches my attention is the projected move lower, a move that would not be inconsistent with my experience, especially when it comes to shaking out the weaker money ahead of a run to new record highs.

Time and more research, of course, will tell.

Stay tuned – and please comment below if you’re so inclined!

Until next time,

Keith

12 Responses to Your Questions (& My Answers) on Predicting the Stock Market

  1. Kenneth Walch says:

    Will your program be applicable to,say, predicting ETF futures or only at the major market levels?

    • Keith says:

      Hello Kenneth.

      Yes. In fact, I anticipate developing a number of refinements that allow it to work on individual securities and the major indices with equal effectiveness.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith πŸ™‚

  2. Mark Dusseau says:

    you have piqued my interest will be waiting for more research results also I’m interested in the test group and thank you for what you do

    • Keith says:

      You’re very welcome, Mark!

      I’ll make sure you’re in the loop when the time comes to begin wider testing and appreciate your interest very much. My goal is to make this fun and profitable!

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith πŸ™‚

  3. Michael says:

    Any thoughts around more long term trend predictions? That would be valuable to patient capital.

    • Keith says:

      Hello Michael.

      Definitely. The calculations are time-scale in-variate, meaning they can be used on any time series with any scale of data – short or long term alike. In fact, some of the best results are for longer term scenarios in testing so far.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith πŸ™‚

  4. Bob Gillespie says:

    At the broker order input level, how do you enter a stop loss for an option trade based on the published stop loss for the underlying stock?

    • Keith says:

      Hello Bob.

      That’s called a “contingency order” and it works basically like a good old fashioned “if then statement” you’d use in high school. Every broker platform differs, though so check with your broker on how that works specifically for your account.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith πŸ™‚

  5. LN says:

    please simple calls and simple put.
    for me the dummy.
    spreads. will take a while for me to approve.
    don’t want to change them, and i love paying them fees.
    nothing in life is free. and if it is. people take advantage of you.
    so oh. cheap calls. .01 goes up to 3. okay?
    not 5 calls going to 15. okay. i am cheap. i am saving.
    will do those calls. is it a new service?
    or will it be included in whatever publication we apply to?
    is it a new publication? fee?

    • Keith says:

      Hi LN.

      I hear you and will do everything I can to keep that in mind. You’re not alone so hang in there!

      I don’t know what form the new research will take just yet but am working on that with my publisher now. We’ll know coming into 2020 me thinks.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith πŸ™‚

  6. Sanjay Lalchand Hathiramani says:

    Hi Keith, this program of yours to predict stock market moves, daily and weeekly analysis, would be of great help(if highly accurate),for me and anyone who trades short term.
    I am a lifetime subscriber to ur high velocity profits and would be very interested in progress on this research program, so please keep us all informed regularly and when test groups start would br interested to join,thanks, great job.

    • Keith says:

      Thanks for the kind words Sanjay and for the encouragement!

      I will keep you posted as the research continues. My goal is to have a set of calcs with both long and short term price prediction capability. That way investors and traders alike (in the Family of course) can use it.

      Best regards and thanks for being part of the Total Wealth Family, Keith πŸ™‚

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *