Your Questions (& My Answers) on Predicting the Stock Market
I had no idea what would happen when I wrote to you last month regarding my newest research and my efforts to predict the stock markets.
I was nervous, uncertain and, frankly, not sure if you’d be interested. Most of all, though, I didn’t want to waste your time.
Turns out I was apprehensive about nothing.
Your reaction has been overwhelming.
There are times when “thank you” doesn’t cut begin to cut it, and this is one of those times.
I am deeply impacted by kind words you expressed and the support you offered when I told you what I’ve been up to a few weeks ago.
Were we in Japan, I’d be bowing very deeply where that is a sign of respect even today, centuries after the custom began. Heck, I probably will still bow deeply when we hold our first seminars on this stuff down the line.
Not get all mushy, but you place a lot of trust in me and that does not go unnoticed. In fact, that’s something I take very, very seriously.
That’s why I’ll spend hours with members of the Total Wealth Family at seminars around the world long after the crowds have gone home, why I’ve been known to divert a motorcycle trip 1,000 miles or more to enjoy dinner with newfound friends in the Total Wealth Family, why I spend hours with our customer service teams listening to your input when I’m in the building and, why I’ll happily answer any question you’ve got anywhere in the world to the best of my ability.
I want to give you the very best I have to offer because that’s how I roll.
Speaking of which, let’s tackle a few of the questions that have come up so far.
Q: Is there a test group and can I sign up?
Not yet. I’m still working out a few kinks related to timing, delivery, security, confidentiality etc. In the meantime, please enjoy the research right here, in Total Wealth, for free.
[UPDATE] What 5G Means For Investors
Q: This sounds similar to research being done by Tom Gentile. Is it?
No – this is very different. Tom is a genius and a great friend. His Money Calendar involves probabilistic calculations based on historical data and pattern analysis applied via carefully researched screens he’s developed. What I am talking about involves forward-looking calculations and is potentially an entirely new form of non-linear neural network used exclusively for price prediction.
Q: This will be great, if it works??!!
That’s a fair statement. People have been trying to predict the stock markets since the dawn of time with very little success. In fact, some very smart people are convinced it cannot be done. To my way of thinking, though, that’s all the more reason to try.
My research has centered on predicting two critical components to date – direction and price – and we’re potentially getting very close to being able to do that with an unprecedented degree of accuracy.
Early this past summer my data scientists came to me with some fantastic results. I glanced at the stack of paper put on my desk then grinned, saying that the “joke was over,” and asked for the real data run.
Long story short, they said that WAS the real data run and that those WERE the real results – at which point, my jaw dropped when I realized just how close we might be to actually solving this puzzle.
There’s still a long way to go but, then again, there always is when it comes to breakthroughs.
Q: How will we make money with this?
That’s still very much up in the air. Preliminary data suggest that the analysis could be applied to everything from tick level data to multi-year projections. That means it’s potentially usable by investors and day traders alike – with no profit-bleeding crossover between the two. That’s never been done before to my knowledge.
Honestly, though, what we do with this depends largely on you. So, let me flip the tables around and ask…
…what would be most helpful to you?
[CRITICAL] You Better See This Now (Tom Is Telling All)
Q: How does the model handle headline risk or the randomness of a Tweet?
I’m spending a lot of time on this very question right now. Our President seems to be Tweeter in Chief, and his opponents seem equally determined to release a storm of anti-tweet tweets in response – both can move prices in an instant.
That seems insurmountable but there’s very clearly a silver lining if you know what to look for.
Headlines and tweets tend to introduce randomness that merely widens the “window” being evaluated which means that investors can potentially be completely wrong about market expectations yet still structure investing choices in such a way that you remain profitable.
I’ll explain more about tactics that can help you do that at a later date.
Q: How often do you “run” new analysis?
We can run it any time, but there are two reports at present – a “daily” showing price projections in advance for any given 24-hour period, and a “weekly” showing price projections for the next five trading days that we usually run Friday evenings, after the markets close.
Here’s a shot of that “run,” from the September 6, 2019 showing projected prices for the week of September 9th through September 13th.
This is where it gets greyer than I’d like.
New record highs are usually a self-fulfilling prophecy especially when the markets “need” new highs like they do at present. And, effectively, this model confirms that.
What catches my attention is the projected move lower, a move that would not be inconsistent with my experience, especially when it comes to shaking out the weaker money ahead of a run to new record highs.
Time and more research, of course, will tell.
Stay tuned – and please comment below if you’re so inclined!
Until next time,