Capital Wave Forecast

If you’re old enough to have lived through the “disco era,” you know the song “More, More, More” by Greg Diamond and performed by Andrea True. That mega-hit was released in February 1976 and became one of the most popular and played songs in discos around the world.

And, yeah, I was there.

It’s also what investors and markets are singing and dancing to right now, particularly the lyrics: “More, more, more / How do you like it, how do you like it?”

And as former Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) CEO Chuck Prince told the Financial Times in July 2007, long after the disco era passed and right before the financial crisis, “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”

If you aren’t getting it, if you haven’t gotten the beat yet, just listen; it’s hard-driving and hypnotic. It’s about more, more, more.

Here’s what I mean…

The Dow rose 508 points, or 1.9% last week. The S&P 500 rose 1.5%. And the Nasdaq Composite rose the same 1.5%.

That’s what I call a bullish week, not because it was a rah, rah run for the high ground kind of week, simply because we ended the week up when we easily could have slid backwards.

We rose on uneventful volume, to be sure, but we rose.

Proof that it was a good week and that bulls are ready to breakout of their corral and maybe stampede higher was especially evident on Friday. After futures pointed to a hellish day ahead, on the heels of the President seen headed for the hospital on Thursday, once the market opened, buyers came in.

It wasn’t a “good” day Friday, but it easily could have been an ugly day. Instead, we saw how willing buyers were to come in and take their shots. That’s bullish.

Today shouldn’t be any kind of surprise to you.

In fact, I know you saw this selloff coming because you had a roadmap with every signpost and mile marker redlined and highlighted with flashing “bellwether” levels to guide you.

You have been paying attention to your Capital Wave Forecast, haven’t you?

We’ve got more to go on the downside, so don’t be in any rush to buy this dip.

Don’t get me wrong – just because I’ve started to write about how crazy the market’s become, how it’s like déjà vu all over again, doesn’t mean I’m not bullish.

Because I am – bullish, that is.

Because, you know, it’s all good until it isn’t.

Because, “as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” That’s what Chuck Prince, Citigroup’s chief executive in July 2007, told the Financial Times. The party would end at some point, but there was so much liquidity it wouldn’t be the U.S. subprime mortgage market stopping the music.

It took another 15 months for Prince’s preamble prediction which was, “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated,” to come true, at least that part. The part about subprime mortgages not being the cause was just a little off. Just a little.

Does that mean we have another 15 months? Maybe.

The Dow was up 723 points last week, or 2.6%. It’s now 3.2% from its all-time highs of last February. The S&P 500 notched another all-time high last week, ending the week up 3.3%. And the Nasdaq Composite hit a record high, ending the week up 3.4%.

Since the March 23, 2020 lows, in only five months, the Dow is up 54.11%, the S&P 500 is up 56.78%, and the Nasdaq Composite, wait for it…is up 70.47%

But, it’s all good… until it isn’t.

Ever wish for an “endless summer?”

Of course, you have.

Ever wish for an endless stock market rally?

Of course, you have.

Well, at least one of your wishes has come true.

Now here we are again, facing the end of summer and wondering how many more days, weeks, months, quarters, years, decades the market’s going keep on rallying.

I’ll save you the wondering, the answer is the market’s going to keep on rallying. Until that is, one, or two, or three things happen, either by themselves, but more likely, in conjunction with one another.

Here’s what they are.

My favorite economic and market postulate is: More is always better sooner.

It’s never been truer.

Another favorite saying of mine is: Nothing matters, and what if it did?

And last but not least: Everything’s good, until it isn’t.

Put them all together and that’s the kind of market we have.

Despite the Nasdaq Composite ending last week down 1.1%, the other major benchmarks ended the week higher. The trend for all of them, including the Nasdaq Composite, is still, up.

But there were minor cracks in the yellow-brick road last week.

A big crack developed on Monday when the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), an important index of the biggest 100 (non-financial) stocks listed on the Nasdaq, rose 2% in the morning, breaking through to new all-time highs, then collapsed spectacularly, ending the day down more than 2%.

That kind of intraday reversal is often a turning point signal. By turning point, I mean a change in the trend.

With markets working themselves higher last week, higher since the March lows, higher forever for the Nasdaq Composite, you could say the good news is behind us and what’s up next will be weightier.

When I say good news, I’m not talking about the bad news all around the country showing dramatic and frightening coronavirus spikes, I’m talking about most of the economic indicators coming out ahead of analysts’ expectations over the past four weeks. Not all of them mind you, but most of them.

Why? Because analysts knocked down every number, every expectation, every hope they had.

And they were wrong. They were too pessimistic.

The stock market is now up on a high wire, balancing where it’s come from against new winds buffeting it from underneath and above.

Here’s what’s front and center and what could push the market either way.

While two weeks ago was scary, especially watching stocks slide on Thursday June 11, 2020, and the majors ending the week down 5.5% for the Dow, down 4.78% for the S&P, and down 2.3% for the Nasdaq Composite, last week offered renewed hope.

Showing signs of recovery last week, the Dow ended up 1%, the S&P 500 was up 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.7%.

The week could have been a lot better, but Friday was a mess. The Dow, for example, after opening higher and climbing 357 points, sold off ending the day down 208 points.

Investors on Friday got nervous about news of more coronavirus hot spots cropping up in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Oklahoma.

Just when the markets looked so promising to so many people, reality bites.

Yes, I’m talking about the frightening second wave of coronavirus infection spikes hitting U.S. states that recently “reopened”, hitting several countries especially hard, and as of this weekend, hitting Beijing, China, causing lockdowns in the country’s capitol.

That’s freaking out investors.

But, that’s not what’s got the potential to crash the market…