Monday Takeaways: Why This Market Refuses to Fall

Shah Gilani|June 23, 2025

Markets don’t care about bombs.

While everyone spent the weekend freaking out about the U.S. hitting Iran’s nuclear sites, stocks just yawned and kept climbing toward new highs.

Powell’s heading to Congress this week…

PCE drops Friday…

And the VIX is telling us traders are staying cool.

Bottom line: This market wants to go up, and geopolitics isn’t going to stop.

Click on the thumbnail to check out today’s video for the full rundown.

Transcript

Hey everybody, Shah Galani here with your Monday Takeaways.

First Big Takeaway

Yes, I’m going backward here. Last week, markets were very calm. We’re working on getting close once again to new all-time highs.

No matter what was thrown at the market last week, no matter what’s coming down the market’s path or standing in its way, the market is just walking over it, stepping over it, climbing every wall of worry.

And last week was the same.

So, what’s the takeaway from that? Stocks just look like they want to go up. So you can’t really fade that.

Monumental Military Action

Next up, we have this monumental military action by the United States – sending a B-2 stealth bomber from Missouri to bomb the nuclear facilities in Iran.

Supposedly, they were obliterated.

It’s going to take some time before we fully understand the damage that was done, and probably not until we have UN inspectors, specifically IAEA inspectors, on the ground to determine the extent of the damage and the effectiveness of the strike. So we don’t know.

But the takeaway this morning from that, which worried everybody, is basically nothing. The markets are pretty flat.

Over the weekend, there was a lot of talk. I know I was engaged in numerous conversations about what had happened and the potential repercussions, as well as what Iran might do. There was also discussion about whether this was about regime change, despite the president’s assertion that it was not.

Ultimately, prior to the bombing of the uranium enrichment facilities and the nuclear facilities, there was talk of regime change, and Marco Rubio talked about regime change.

So yes, it’s on the table, but they didn’t want this particular military strike to be about that. That may come later. The takeaway from that is that, so far, it looks like there will be a limited response.

And perhaps like last time when the United States got involved in Iran and supported bombing and did some actual bombing, then the Iranians telegraphed to the United States that they were going to have to do something.

But they warned them of what they were going to do. And when they struck a military base, the military base had been evacuated for the most part. There were no injuries and no American deaths. That’s what Iran did, as they didn’t want to escalate.

So, once again, it appears they may need to escalate to de-escalate. In other words, we’ll have to get back to you, but it’s possible that the United States won’t accept it. Perhaps they advise against doing that. There’s still a lot of stuff out there.

Market Analysis and the VIX

I want to take a look at the market because the truth of the matter is that the market is pretty cool. And looking at the market, people, all I’ve got to tell you is – as hot as it’s been out there, and I’ll get to the weather in a second – look at the VIX.

Yes, there are tariff spikes, and so on. But look, it’s a pretty tight range in here. We’re down here, people, to a 16-handle on the VIX. We’re up around 21 to 22. The mean for the VIX people is 19.5.

So, if we really look at this and get an average, we’re pretty close to that average. Perhaps a little higher, but I’d say it’s close enough to 19.5 on the VIX.

This is happening across the board in a sideways pattern, which suggests that, as far as hedging goes, whether it involves buying puts or S&P options, there’s not much activity. This suggests that traders aren’t anxious and are remaining calm.

So you can’t fault that, people. You’ve got to go with what everybody’s doing right now. As for what they’re doing, they’re not engaging in any activities that require their involvement in derivatives to hedge positions or bet on the downside.

S&P 500 Analysis

Now, here’s the S&P 500. Look, here’s the all-time high here, people. We’re just inches away. That closing high was 6,144. We’re at just a shade under 6,000. We’ve been flirting with 6,000.

Yes, will it take a little while to get up here? Yes, because there has been some temporary resistance in the market. So yes, we’re going a little bit sideways here, but we’re not falling down yet.

I think the takeaway from that is it appears that stocks simply want to go up. The reaction to the US bombing Iran’s nuclear sites looks to me like the markets don’t really care. They’re shrugging it off, and that means it looks like they want to go up.

This Week’s Key Events

It’s going to be an interesting week, I think, for two reasons.

Number 1, we’ve got Fed Chairman Powell speaking to Congress – to the House and the Senate – this week. And they’re going to talk to him and ask him a lot about spending. They’ll ask him about what the Fed sees in terms of tariffs and how the tariffs are impacting inflation.

And, well, of course, if the Republicans are going to have their say—and they’ll—they’ll be asking, “Why don’t you start cutting rates?” because they want to echo the president’s position, which is essentially pressuring Fed Chairman Powell to lower rates.

Of course, the Democrats will be concerned about the deficit and the large bill, and they will likely ask the chairman questions about these issues.

What’s that going to do to the deficit? What will it do to the debt? What’s it going to do to impact inflation? What’s it going to do to Treasury yields?

And so it’s going to be an interesting week. How he answers these questions may move the market.

Friday, we got PCE. So there you have it – that’s the Fed’s favored inflation measure. Now, inflation has been doing pretty much what the Fed wants it to do, coming down. The headline number is nearing the Fed’s 2% target.

However, we’ll see if there’s any push-through from tariff-related factors in the upcoming PCE number. There hasn’t been anything similar that we’ve seen previously.

However, a lot of things could change if we receive an unexpectedly high number, and the impact of that is due to tariffs. Then people start to worry about it – well, we haven’t seen that yet. Perhaps there will be some selling or profit-taking.

Final Takeaway

So the takeaway is that markets remain cool despite everything that’s going on, climbing every wall of worry. Stocks just look like they want to go up. And it’s hot out there, people. It’s hot right now.

So, the takeaway for you and everybody out there is to stay cool. Follow the markets. Stay cool. Because, and I know some people hate when I say this, but I’m going to say it anyway – it’s all good until it isn’t.

Stay cool out there.

Just remember to have your stops in place in case something unexpected happens.

Cheers.