Just 24 Days to Go…
Joe Hill|October 12, 2024
24 days.
Less than a month until it’s all over.
The ads… the debates… the griping…
Okay, the griping will probably continue.
But at least we’ll have another contentious election cycle behind us.
And regardless what new regime we get, the markets can move forward with knowns rather than uncertainty.
Markets hate uncertainty, you know.
The good news is that, almost in tandem with the announcement of this year’s election results, we’ll have the next key rate decision from the Federal Reserve.
Unburdened by fears of seeming too “political,” Jay Powell will step to the podium once again to reveal – Wall Street hopes – the size of its next rate cut.
Will we get another 50-basis point reduction?
Right now, CME Group’s FedWatch tool is predicting a more modest cut. Especially after the Bureau of Labor Statistics stunned with its report showing 254,000 jobs were created in September – a clear sign that the economy remains strong in spite of sky-high rates.
But we won’t know the Fed’s plan for sure until after Election Day.
So what do we know?
Well, thanks to our latest piece from Robert Ross, we know that now is still a good time to invest.
On Tuesday, he broke down the four phases of Merrill Lynch’s Investment Clock:
- Reflation
- Recovery
- Overheat
- Stagflation.
“We’re not fully in the Recovery phase yet, but all signs point toward it,” he wrote. “This aligns with the idea that markets are entering a ‘Goldilocks phase’ – steady growth, cooling inflation, and supportive monetary policy.”
That certainly describes the moment.
Robert added…
“Every cycle is different, and this framework, while useful, isn’t infallible. However, if the indicators continue to track, we could be moving into a favorable time for stocks, with inflation under control and the Fed cutting rates.”
It’s a thought worth savoring as we move into the home stretch of election season.
We’re almost there, guys…
Note: We’ve just released a special presentation from Shah on what the election could bring… and nine market moves you should consider making. Give it a watch here.
