What We Learned From Last Night’s Big Debate
Alex Moschina|September 11, 2024
Yaaawn…
We’re still recovering from watching last night’s big debate, which kicked off right around our usual bedtime.
But knowing the shape the country – and our economy – is in, we figured it would be worth losing some Z’s to catch the action.
In retrospect, we should’ve just set the DVR and watched at 2x speed this morning.
Aside from a few spirited barbs, neither candidate delivered anything new or unexpected.
Though according to The New York Times, they did technically spend more time discussing the economy than any other issue.
A whopping 10 minutes and 19 seconds!
And yet, if you watched the debate, you likely gleaned no more insight into Trump’s or Harris’ economic policies than you had before.
Trump wants to ramp up import taxes, lower corporate taxes, and knock down oil prices.
Harris wants to raise the top individual income tax rate, bump up the corporate tax rate, and incentivize first-time homebuyers and small business owners with hefty tax credits.
Economists say the plans will raise the deficit by as little as $1.2 trillion (Harris) or as much as $5.8 trillion (Trump) by 2034.
The good news? As we’ve long said, debt doesn’t matter anymore.
Only eggheads worry about something as trivial as a balanced budget.
And speaking of eggheads…
The just-released August CPI report showed that consumer prices climbed “only” 2.5% last month compared to 2.9% in July.
It further shows that inflation is cooling… and justifies the Fed’s long-anticipated rate cut, set to be announced just a week from now.
Yes, happy times are coming.
But not happy enough for folks on Wall Street who were hoping for a 50 basis point cut.
Factoring in the latest CPI data, the CME FedWatch Tool now shows an 85% chance that Jay Powell and his crew will cut rates by a less exciting 25 basis points.
A month ago, the tool showed the odds of a half of a percent cut were roughly 50/50.
The major indexes were down this morning, partly due to the shift.
Though let’s not forget…
It’s September.
As Shah noted in his Monday Takeaways… and as Robert further explored yesterday… markets are wont to drop in September.
It’s historically the worst month of the year for stocks.
In times of high inflation… low inflation… and regardless of whether it’s an election year…
During September, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 0.7% since 2004.
We’ll see next week whether a rate cut – albeit a measly one – can buck the trend.
In the meantime, catch up with our latest thoughts on the topic below.
And if you would be so kind…
One final request.
We are always working to improve the usefulness of our daily editorial. I want to hear your thoughts on this weekly Bulletin.
Let us know what you like… what you don’t like… and what you’d like to see more of.
Send me an email at mailbag@manwardpress.com.
Thank you in advance.
Alex Moschina
Alex Moschina is the associate publisher of Manward Press. A gifted writer, editor and financial researcher, Alex’s career in publishing began more than a decade ago when he worked at one of the world’s leading providers of academic research and reference materials. Alex first cut his teeth in the realm of investing when he joined the team at White Cap Research in 2010. There he was charged with covering emerging market trends and investment opportunities. A stint as senior managing editor and editorial director at the prestigious Oxford Club followed. A frequent speaker at conferences and events, Alex has led educational workshops across the U.S. and Canada.
