Monday Takeaways: Get Ready for an Explosive 2025

Shah Gilani|December 2, 2024

What do peace talks in Ukraine, America’s manufacturing future, and November’s remarkable market rally have in common?

The answer could reshape your investment strategy for 2025.

The market is sending clear signals, if you know where to look.

Let me show you which sectors have the green light… and which are yellow or, worse, red.

Tune in for your Monday Takeaways as we kick off December. Don’t miss what’s moving your money… NOW.

Click on the thumbnail below to watch.

Transcript

Hey, everybody. Shah Gilani here with your Monday Takeaways.

The first takeaway is what a fun week it was for those of you who got to enjoy Thanksgiving, eat up all the good stuff, didn’t have to travel too far. It was great.

It was a great week for the markets too.

Friday was not only the end of a short week but the end to November. And it was a November to remember. Best month of the year so far.

We have December ahead of us.

Takeaway from what’s been happening is stocks just want to go up. A Trump election, the retreat to some degree of inflation, the Fed wanting and articulating their wants to really lower rates, earnings good… all kinds of good things.

Stocks just want to go up, and they are going up. Takeaway from all that is to be on the long side. Don’t trade the short side. Don’t try to catch a falling knife and look for some kind of turn.

We’ll get a turn at some point, but I don’t see one out there yet.

We have the end of the year coming up. The consensus is for an end of year rally. I’ve been calling for an end of year rally since early October. I said throughout the rest of the year, we’re going to rally, and I’m still of that bent because stocks want to go higher.

We have a couple takeaways now that we can put some money on.

One is President-elect Donald Trump’s administration as it is shaping up. No one’s been confirmed yet, and there’s been some resistance on a couple of the nominees. One of them has been replaced. And I don’t think that we’re done with that. But generally speaking, we have an understanding – based on how the administration’s shaping up – of what the policies are likely to be.

That gives the market some clarity.

That’s another reason they’ve been going up. So whether you agree or disagree with who the nominees are, it doesn’t matter. Markets are what matters, and they like what they see so far.

So given the shape of the administration and some of the policies articulated by the president-elect, here’s a really quick takeaway on what I think is going to be hot and not.

First of all, oil and gas.

Green light. You can probably just keep on trucking there, maybe exceed the speed limit. Probably going to be good. Though the market’s been soft for oil and gas.

If it’s going to get cold and nasty this winter, then we’ll probably firm up. But the market itself, it’s a trader’s market. You have to be very delicate there. But, generally speaking, I don’t think this Trump administration is going to push back on oil and gas.

Coal, same thing. Green light. Coal’s probably got better prospects than oil and gas right now.

Nuclear, green light. Period.

Renewables, I’m going to say yellow at best. EVs, yellow.

Maybe some red in there, but the red that’s coming up is not so much from a vocal administration or a vocal President-elect Trump. The red flashing in terms of EVs are sales have been just so lackluster, and production is being cut around the world on EV manufacturers. So EV is facing its own hurdle before any pushback on EVs from a Trump administration.

So be careful out there with EVs.

Crypto, green light.

Inflation, yellow, because it’s a battle. And the inflation facing forward, looking at President-elect Trump and the likely administration he’s going to have pushing his policies, I think the prospects for inflation are yellow. They’re right in the middle. The understanding seems to be at least the predominant or the consensus view is that likely tariffs that a President-elect Trump would impose would be inflationary for the U.S.

That’s a pretty straightforward argument. I don’t think there’s too much that we could push back on there. But there is a pushback. So it’s not a wide-ranging pushback, but it’s a very important pushback.

And that is that the prospect of reshoring will create a lot of additional manufacturing and additional capacity because other countries aren’t going to stop exporting if they’re tariffed to the moon. They’re still going to have to export. Right? They don’t they can’t internalize those sales, so they’ll suffer there.

But now we have reshoring here and the things that we’re going to try and manufacture are cheaper here to keep prices down and to get to build jobs and rebuild the manufacturing sector of this country.

That’s going to create capacity. Now over time, that’s going to be excess capacity globally, which will bring prices down. So there’s an argument you may not have thought about, but that’s how I see the potential positive of reshoring in terms of offsetting tariffs or offsetting the potential upfront push likely for higher inflation.

I think that might get addressed later. Might take time. So there’s something to think about.

As far as the rest of the world, wow, implications for China. Implications for Russia, definitely.

Ukraine, definitely. We already see some movement. President Zelensky of Ukraine has already said they might be willing to cede some land to Russia.

Do you notice? The wheels of peace negotiations have started, whether they’re very quiet under the covers. There have been little things thrown out there.

We have a ceasefire in Lebanon between Lebanon and Israel.

This is happening at the end of the Biden administration, not because of the Biden administration, because of an incoming Trump administration.

Very interesting. So what will that do for global trade, for peace, for what the prospects are for us economically, globally?

A lot of stuff going on there.

There’s more, of course, to that. The rest of the world is going to be impacted by President Trump’s policies, by the administration’s push wherever it’s going to push ultimately. So a lot of stuff to contemplate.

A lot of takeaways from what’s just happened and how quickly it’s happened and how quickly things are already changing.

This week, today, Monday, we have a manufacturing PMI. I think the expectation is for 48. Fifty is the and that that will be up a little bit from October’s manufacturing PMI.

Fifty, don’t forget, is that straddle line above which we’re growing, below which we’re not. And as far as manufacturing goes, 48 would be good. Above 50 would be, oh, we’re doing a lot better.

We get services PMI on Wednesday. I think we’re looking at something like 55.4. That’s the estimate there. So that would be a little lower than October’s services PMI. We’ll see what happens there.

We have some jobs numbers this week. On Tuesday, we have job openings. That’s going to be an interesting number. And on Friday, we have the BLS. Again, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is going to give us the unemployment rate, and it’s going to give us jobs created in the month of November.

Now October was 12,000 only, and that had a lot to do with hurricanes and weather around the country.

So the November number looks to be at least a consensus estimates for about 190,000 jobs created. So keep your eyes on that.

Those two takeaways for this week, it’s really risk on. If you look at the market as an entity that thinks its own thoughts, does its own thing, moves its own way, it’s telling you what it’s thinking.

It’s thinking positively. It’s telling you where it wants to go. Higher.

There’s your takeaways. So go out. Make yourself some money. Catch you guys next week.