Elon’s $277M Political Bet Just Cost Tesla 40% of Its Value

Shah Gilani|July 11, 2025

Let me say it straight: Elon Musk has every right to dislike President Trump’s policies, personality, or political agenda. He can criticize the president all he wants because he’s a free man in America – not just because he’s the richest man in the world, helped get Trump elected, or founded Tesla, SpaceX, The Boring Company, and Neuralink.

But what’s unfolding now isn’t just about two outsized egos clashing. This headline-grabbing, market-shaking feud between Musk and President Trump threatens shareholder value.

Right now, Tesla shareholders are the collateral damage.

The $277 Million Bet

Musk reportedly spent more than $277 million supporting pro-Trump super PACs and advocacy groups during the last election cycle. That wasn’t about friendship – it was business.

Musk understood that Trump’s policies would benefit U.S. manufacturers, reduce corporate taxes, and potentially deliver regulatory relief for companies like Tesla.

After Trump’s victory in November 2024, Tesla’s stock soared. Investors bet big on a “Made in America” boom and on Elon’s proximity to power.

Tesla hit new highs, topping $488 a share intraday on December 18 and closing at an all-time high that day at $440.13.

But that love affair didn’t last.

When Love Turns to War

First, Tesla’s global sales took a hit. American buyers, and more so European and Asian buyers – especially in Germany and China – began canceling orders.

The reason wasn’t Tesla’s cars but Musk’s support for Trump. In a polarized world, product preference becomes political. Tesla’s global sales dropped by 13% in each of this year’s first two quarters.

Trump’s public jabs, late-night Truth Social posts, and, most importantly, his implied regulatory threats against Tesla and SpaceX contracts have shaken investors who are counting on Musk’s leadership.

Meanwhile, Musk has been firing back, including promising to unseat Republicans who voted for the Big Beautiful Bill. He even started a third party, the America Party.

The result has been entertaining for spectators but devastating for shareholders.

Free Speech vs. Shareholder Value

Here’s the thing: there’s a real balancing act between free speech and fiduciary responsibility.

Elon Musk is not just an individual. He’s the face and beating heart of a trillion-dollar corporate ecosystem. Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, The Boring Company – they all have boards of directors.

They all have shareholders who bought in not because they wanted a political circus, but because they believed in Musk’s vision.

When Musk battles Trump, it might feel personal. It might even be justified. But the capital markets don’t care. They punish uncertainty, especially when it’s self-inflicted.

Look at the numbers: Tesla’s market cap has fallen by almost 40% from its 2024 peak. Analyst downgrades are piling up, not because the cars aren’t cutting-edge, but because investors fear political blowback and corporate governance instability.

Three Ways Out

Can this feud be resolved? Maybe.

One path forward would be for Musk to take a page from the Warren Buffett playbook: say less, do more. Focus on products, earnings, and shareholder value. Let political fights happen behind closed doors, not in front of cameras and social media feeds.

Another option: Tesla’s board could step in more aggressively. Set clear policies around executive communications on political matters.

Institutional investors like BlackRock and Vanguard have already expressed concerns behind the scenes – at some point, governance pressure could force change.

Or – and this may be the most likely outcome – Musk and Trump could find their way back to common ground. Both men thrive on leverage.

If Musk can secure favorable tax credits or regulatory carve-outs for Tesla’s next-generation battery plants, don’t be surprised if the insults cool and the handshakes return. It’s happened before.

The Real Fight

Elon Musk is a genius. No argument there. But even geniuses need to remember that shareholders aren’t in it for the show – they’re in it for the stock price.

Musk may have the right to speak his mind, but his boards have the obligation to protect shareholder value.

That’s capitalism. And that’s the real fight Musk has to win.