Monday Takeaways: Why Nvidia’s Stellar Earnings Couldn’t Stop the Risk-Off Rout

Shah Gilani|November 24, 2025

When stellar earnings can’t save a stock, we all need to pay attention…

Nvidia just hit it out of the park with earnings. Analysts loved the results. The stock opened higher Thursday morning.

Then came the collapse.

When the planet’s most valuable stock can’t hold gains on fantastic earnings, that’s not profit-taking. That’s a warning.

And Nvidia wasn’t alone in this risk-off carnage:

• Bitcoin crashed to $80,500 before bouncing back
• NASDAQ 100 broke down through its ascending channel completely
• S&P down 1.9% for the week despite Friday’s Fed-fueled bounce
• Microsoft broke through key support levels

Yes, Friday brought relief when New York Fed President Williams talked up a December rate cut. Odds jumped from 25% to 71% overnight.

Markets loved it. Futures bounced.

But here’s the problem – one day of Fed optimism doesn’t erase a week of destruction across multiple market sectors.

I’ll show you exactly what these risk-off signals mean, which technical levels you need to watch, and why I’m not rushing to load up on stocks yet – even though valuations look tempting.

Click on the image below to find out if this market could drop another 5-10% before the real buying opportunity arrives.

Transcript

Hey, everybody. Shah Gilani here with your Monday Takeaways, and there’s a lot to take away from last week.

The operative word phrase is “risk off.” So let’s talk about the takeaways from last week and what and how they led to this risk-on flavor the markets now have as of this morning based on Friday. But really all week up until Friday, it was risk off.

That’s important because I don’t think we can change that quickly, given what happened most of the week.

Friday, well, the rebound we saw Friday was based on New York Fed President Williams really talking about what’s likely to happen in December at the Fed meeting at the FOMC – likely to be a quarter-point cut. So the betting, if you will, in the futures markets of a cut went from 25% earlier in the week to 40%. And then when Williams spoke on Friday to 71%.

In my opinion, we’re going to get a cut.

Why? Because risk off is prevalent, and risk off has been prevalent because some signs of cracks in economic growth are there. There are signs in terms of credit spreads widening. There are signs out there that some of the risk-on assets have gotten hammered, specifically Bitcoin, which, by the way, got down to $80,500 last week.

It bounced over the weekend, but it’s giving a little bit of that back early this morning.

But the flavor for the week was risk off until Friday. And thank goodness for Friday. And we’re seeing the futures up this morning, Monday here. So I’m going to say anything can go this week.

It’s a short week because of Thanksgiving. And let’s take a look at some charts because really, I think a picture tells a story better than anything I could tell you. Now, what I’m going to pull up first is the triple Qs. This is the NASDAQ 100 ETF tracker.

And this is a breakdown. This is a great ascending channel here. And this is a breakdown. This is just an absolute breakdown.

So it’s going to take an awful lot. And in the premarket, if you’re looking up here, you can see the Qs are looking to be about up 1% – NASDAQ Composite up a little close to that also in the premarket. So NASDAQ and the Composite and the 100 both looking to rise about maybe 1%. Again, this is pre-open here.

So this is a pretty ugly situation, but it’s not the only ugly situation. And this is what worries me because not only did we have that kind of disruption, but the S&P last week ended up down just a shade under 2%, down 1.9% on the week. Still within this pretty broad ascending channel, but this looks pretty ugly here in terms of rolling over.

Kind of going through this little local support here, and then thank goodness again for Friday and the bounce back.

Thank you, President Williams of the New York Fed. The market certainly needed that.

And the disruption really was led by Nvidia. And I’m going to just point to this real quickly. I’m going to illuminate this. This is a two-month chart.

You can just see this bar on Thursday. This is the S&P – it opens up a lot higher, ends up really 1% high on the day and then collapses, closes close to the lows of the day down 2%. That’s a 3% intraday move to the downside, people. That’s risk off.

Nvidia – stellar earnings. And nonetheless, same action opened up right here. Highs of the day. Absolutely.

Everybody loved the earnings. Fantastic. Hit it out of the park. And then we closed close to the lows.

An ugly intraday reversal for the most valued stock on the planet.

Here we go again. It’s a similar pattern broken down.

I know we need to have a rally in here. Premarket, Nvidia is up. But for the week last week, it was down 5.9%. But it wasn’t the only big name, but it was the most important name that got beaten up.

So again, risk on – when Nvidia, the leader of the chip story on AI, gets hammered when it has fantastic earnings. That’s risk off, people. So Microsoft, this is Microsoft.

This is ugly. It has long since broken through support here. Is it going to fill this gap? Yikes.

If it fills the gap, people, something’s far wrong. It’s not profit-taking. We’re seeing – we’re going to see a correction of another 5%, 10%. If Microsoft gets down here, something is going on.

So the sentiment has gone to risk off. And again, I’m going to say it again and again. Friday was the only saving grace. And it all of a sudden was like a moment of risk on – people going to buy this dip.

If the Fed’s going to cut, is this a buy-the-dip opportunity? Remains to be seen.

The last thing I’ll say about risk off last week and Bitcoin being beaten up is spreads started to widen. They’ve been widening since early October. And when I’m talking about spreads, I’m talking about the spread of investment-grade yields over Treasury yields of equivalent maturities and the spreads of high yield over Treasurys. So those spreads, when they start to widen, that’s telling us that credit markets, credit investors, bond investors are getting a little worried about credit conditions.

And so the spreads widen because they demand more. They’re maybe selling off high yield, they may be selling off some investment grade, and the yields are rising versus the Treasurys. And so the spreads are widening. That’s indicative of some credit nervousness there.

That’s risk off. So we’re seeing a confluence of risk-off moves that were only arrested, as I said, by Friday’s expectation that we’re likely to see a cut. And I think we will see a cut. Does it make sense for the Fed not to cut 25 basis points?

It’s going to be getting ahead of the curve of what could be bad or could be a slowing economy, could be rising unemployment, which did tick up last week. So we got all that going on, and it’s risk off until Friday was a little bit of risk on. And then all of a sudden it’s like, now are investors going to buy this dip? Because there’s a lot of stuff that’s on sale.

One of them that’s not is Alphabet – stellar performer last week, up more than 8%. So yes, bucking the trend. So it’s to me a risk-off sentiment that is looking for a reason. Investors or traders looking for a reason for that to flip.

And if it flips, it’ll be flipping on a dime on a comment from Friday and follow-through from today. But we’re not even open yet. Let’s see how it goes today. The takeaway from all this is be careful out there on account of the fact that markets look dicey right now.

I hope it’s a buy-the-dip moment. I’m not so sure. I’m not rushing in to load up on stuff here because there’s just been too much destruction across too many areas.

Retail, I think, is nervous. They’re not going to come to the rescue. I don’t think institutions are real nervous about credit. I don’t know if they’re going to come to the rescue. Stuff does look cheap.

There’s a lot of cheap-looking stocks out there. Nvidia looks cheap now. Microsoft certainly looks cheap down here. There’s a lot of other great names that if you don’t own or you do own, you want to add to – those numbers are starting to get, I would say, persuasive that the time is coming to buy.

But I don’t see it just yet. So final takeaway, make sure you have your stops in place. And if we see a tumble, you want to start buying back in. How far can we go?

In my opinion, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the market drop another 5%, maybe 10%.

I’ll catch you guys next week. Happy Thanksgiving, everybody.