Stock of the Week: Is This Under-the-Radar EV Stock Gearing Up for More Gains?
Alpesh Patel|May 27, 2022
Editor’s Note: Alpesh is back for Operation Save Your A$$… Today he shows you how he picks his winning stocks and gives you a taste of the detailed analysis subscribers to his GVI Investor research service get. And it’s exactly the type of precise, laser-focused research that could help save investors’ portfolios in this market. Click here to learn how to get access to all of Alpesh’s research and analysis… before he makes his next recommendation.
I’ve got another “Readers Choice” stock to analyze for this week’s Stock of the Week.
Remember, this is to give you a sort of “tip of the iceberg” analysis of the kinds of things I look at when I look at a company.
The company is BorgWarner (BWA). Borg provides solutions for combustion, hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs). Now, when you see the words “electric vehicle” and “hybrid,” you might think, “Surely it should be doing well.”
With its focus on e-propulsion (for electric motors), drivetrains and fuel injection, Borg provides the solutions EVs need.
It also counts Ford and Volkswagen as customers. Very good.
It’s a well-diversified company – it operates globally and has a diverse product range that serves light, commercial and off-highway vehicles.
When we look at the stock chart, it’s had some up and down years. In 2017, it went up 27%. In 2018, it went down 32% (but then again, that wasn’t a good year for the market more broadly). In 2019, it went up 25%. In 2020, it went down 11%. In 2021, it went up 17%. And so far this year, it’s down 15%.
The reader who submitted this stock must be asking, “Well, what does it all mean?”
So let’s look at some of the financials.
Overall, they’re not too bad.
Looking at my Growth-Value-Income rating, it comes in at a 4. That’s a bit weak in terms of valuation, revenue growth and dividend yields.
Borg’s cash return on capital invested (CROCI) is 5.1%. That’s lower than I would like.
Remember, CROCI is a measure of the ability of a company to generate cash based on the capital invested. BorgWarner’s 5.1% CROCI is not in the top quartile of all stocks. From the research we do in my GVI Investor, we know that a company in the top quartile by CROCI should generate about 30% per annum over the long term.
So this stock doesn’t meet my requirements for CROCI or my GVI rating.
But again, the financials are not too bad. We’re not talking about a company in risk of bankruptcy or anything.
The stock is up 9% over the past six months. The Sortino ratio – a measure of reward versus risk – is a little low at 0.1. I’m happy with the return alpha at 1.31%. That means the stock is outperforming the market in the sense that it’s generating excess returns. And with volatility at 18.06%, I’m happy with that as well. Volatility under 20% is always a good sign.
Now, with a deeper dive into the financials, I can see a lot of positives. Turnover, net asset value and profitability are all good.
Pretax profits have come down after a strong rising trend. I put that down mainly to COVID-19. We really weren’t using our cars much during the beginning of the pandemic, were we? But I should expect something of a return back to normal now.
The forecast price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 is not too bad at all, especially if Volkswagen get its act in gear (so to speak) and Ford does the same, really doubling down on EVs and taking on Tesla and the like.
Taking all of these metrics into consideration… BorgWarner has a lot going for it, but it doesn’t meet the high bar to make it onto my list.
To see me go through this analysis with charts and graphs of all the important financials, click on the image below to watch this week’s Stock of the Week.
While BorgWarner doesn’t make the cut, there are several stocks I’m excited about that do – all with high GVI ratings and double-digit CROCIs. You can learn more about them right here.