Shah Gilani's Archive

With sanctions on Russia ramping up, security experts warn that a retaliatory cyber-fight could be coming to the West. Whether or not a full-blown cyberwar with Russia ever materializes doesn’t matter from a short-term trading perspective. All that matters is the cyber threat narrative driving stocks higher. Case in point, the iShares Cybersecurity and Tech […]

Claims that we’re 100% heading into a recession (because the never-wrong inverted yield curve says so) are fake news. This time the recession indicator is wrong.

The yield curve is a simple concept. It shows graphically what different maturity bonds pay investors in terms of the yield (or interest rate) they pay.

Super short maturity instruments, like the fed funds rate (the interest rate banks charge each other when they lend money), yield very little because the loan is only overnight. The risk of default in a day is infinitesimally small. The yield on a 6-month T-Bill would be higher due to investors lending money to the government for 6-months also wanting more interest. The yield on a 2-year Treasury note would be higher because of the longer maturity of the loan. The 10-year yield would be higher still. And so on, out to 30-year bonds.

When graphed, these yields typically slope upwards like the Treasury yield curve shown below.

The yield curve is said to be inverted any time the yield on a shorter-dated maturity is higher than a longer-dated maturity instrument – in other words, a reversal of the chart above. What everyone’s panicking about was an inversion of the U.S. Treasury 2-year note and U.S Treasury 10-year bond (referred to as the 2s and 10s in Wall Street Parlance).

Over the past 30-days, the yield curve (as measured by 2s and 10s) has inverted a couple of times. At some points, this inversion was only by a few points or a few tenths of a percent, but an inversion nonetheless.

And this is concerning to some because, historically, whenever the curve inverts (even by a tiny amount), a recession follows. That’s what’s making headlines now.

The graph below shows the spread between 2s and 10s in the blue line. Whenever the spread goes negative, a recession (the gray longitudinal bars) occurs. So, it’s been a pretty good indicator so far.

But dare I say, “this time is different.”

Click here to learn why and how to position yourself to play what’s really happening.

Last year, some analysts condemned Chinese stocks listed on U.S. exchanges as ‘uninvestible.’ But I didn’t buy that claim. Yes, Chinese regulators had sent a clear message to those companies: You can’t do anything we don’t want you to do. You can’t share data with anyone we don’t want you to. And if you do, […]

It has been two years since then-U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to hold foreign companies accountable, demanding audited financials from all companies listed on U.S. exchanges – including the Chinese ones which, until then, didn’t have to submit audited financial and never did.

The response to this policy became a “cold war” fought on the front-lines of securities trading. High-quality stocks like BABA, DIDI, and NIO, some of my favorites to come out of China, were beaten down. IPOs were postponed. But, regardless of Chinese Central Government’s retaliation, the deadline was set.

All non-compliant businesses would be removed from the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq by 2024 – and it seems that Chinese authorities have started to give in.

On Friday, investors learned that they are preparing to give U.S. regulators full access to auditing reports of the majority of the 200-plus companies listed in New York, as soon as this Summer.

There’s no way of knowing how serious Chinese authorities are, regarding the matter, but that didn’t stopped traders from driving shares of Chinese stocks higher in Friday’s session.

Given the fact that Chinese stocks have been significantly beaten down over the last 18 months, I think we have a pretty good short-term trading opportunity to catch a ride as retail traders look for new trades.

Click here to grab three moves to make on Chinese Stocks.

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has made waves throughout the world, politically and financially – and they are taking their toll.

It is looking grim for European economies and a recession may be on its way.

In the last week, German economists have urged business and households to dramatically cut back their energy use. Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, went so far as to tell European households to become more pessimistic and cut back on spending.

To those of you asking me about the European finance sector, here’s your answer: don’t touch it with the ten-foot pole. There is a better option that could bolster your portfolio.

Watch the video below to learn more or…

Click here to read the transcript

As complicated as the world and markets are now, there are ways to make money on what’s happening, ways to play volatility, ways to trade that will make you a successful investor for the rest of your life. I know because I’ve been doing it for 40 years, and I’m raking in big gains in […]

Good morning, everybody. Shah Gilani here. Hope you all had a good weekend. Hope it’s going to be a good week. It’s going to be an interesting one because every week, so far, this year has been interesting. And certainly, I expect the volatility in the market will continue. So today I just want to touch base with you guys on a bunch of your questions. I’ve got a few of them that certainly are great questions. Most of them are really good questions. And there’s a lot of questions you guys have about particular stocks. I’m going to save my, I want to call a sort of a lightning round towards the end. It’s going to be 20 minutes, half an hour, call here, and I’m going to go over all of the stocks that I have, or most of the stocks that you guys have submitted.

So, there’s a bunch of them. And I know if you go into your Q and A box here in Zoom, you can post questions and I’ll try and get to those. Also, if you have some stock questions there, again, I’ll try and get to those towards the end of this call.

So, with that, let’s get started. Here are some of the questions that were submitted and I’m going to touch base on the market. And some of these in these questions, as I address them, I will talk generally about probably the things everyone’s most interested in as far as where the market is now, where it’s likely to go and why it might do what I think it’s going to do.

Last year was huge for growth stocks. But since then, for one reason or another, many have seen their all-time highs crumble under the pressure of inflation, rising interest rates, and a whole slew of other factors.

Not even the big-name FAANG stocks are safe.

But stock prices are not always reflective of how a company is performing; many have reported stellar earnings numbers that simply aren’t being reflected in the value of their stocks.

Big news for pot stock traders this week: legislation to legalize marijuana at the federal level is hitting the House floor as soon as next week.

News of the vote sent shares of popular pot stocks soaring with Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY), Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC), and Sundial Growers Inc. (SNDL) gaining more than 36%, 12% and 47%, respectively, in last week’s trading.

I’ve long been in support of legalizing marijuana, but there’s a little more to the story than investors are considering.

The upcoming vote is on the MORE Act, which already passed in December 2020, so it’s expected to pass again. Once that happens though, it moves to the Senate, where things start to look murkier.

There currently aren’t enough Senators onboard to get to the 60 votes needed to pass a bill – and that could result in some serious headwinds for the recent pot-stock rally.

Any change in the narrative could dive pot stocks back down, making an interesting trade opportunity.

Get this TLRY play and two bonus trades courtesy of Shah’s watchlist.

Meta Platforms Inc.‘s (FB) reputation is under fire.

This week, my inbox was flooded with questions about the stock after Michael Auerbach of Subversive Metaverse ETF (PUNK) announced the ETF’s permanent short position on FB, despite going all-in on everything else metaverse.

That’s a bad move, Mr. Auerbach.

Sure, Meta has had a rough start to 2022 after missing analyst expectations on its Q4/2021 earnings. But that doesn’t mean you should leave Meta, a one of the largest social media companies in the world that touts a 33% profit margin, should be left off your portfolio.