Shah Gilani's Archive

Today Jeff Bezos of Amazon.com Inc. (NasdaqGS:AMZN), Tim Cook of Apple Inc. (NasdaqGS:AAPL), Sundar Pichai of Google/Alphabet Inc. (NasdaqGS:GOOG), and Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook Inc. (NasdaqGS:FB) face members of the House Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee, in what’s going to be a show.

And I think you know what kind of show I’m talking about.

House members are going to come out swinging because it’s an election year.

Vote-hungry Representatives want the public to see them as protectors of our privacy, pushing back on undue societal — meaning voter — influence, as promoters of equal employment opportunities within each of those CEOs’ colossal companies. And, because antitrust is the name of the game for this subcommittee, the House is going to push for equal access to the platforms, ecosystems, and consumers these giants control and profit handsomely from.

Today just might be a big deal. Today, we just might see how serious Congress is about breaking up these giants. Today, we just might hear what these monster companies might be forced to do to help struggling businesses they’ve quashed for years.

Today, investors just might freak out if they don’t like what they think could happen.

Markets, equity markets in particular, are at an incredibly vulnerable place, today and all this week. What happens, which we’ll find out on or before Friday’s close, could make or break the market.

Today, the CEOs of Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google are in the line of fire, as they virtually face, virtually, the House Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee.

The big deal today will be about what those mega-cap Tech Kings are asked and how they answer.

So far, it’s been a mixed bag for tech earnings this quarter, at least as far as their reported metrics.

What hasn’t been mixed however is how investors have decidedly been selling big tech names, including selling Netflix down on less than expected subscriber growth and selling Microsoft on excellent earnings metrics, except for slower growth in its cloud business, if you can call 43% growth slow.

Something’s bothering Big Tech investors.

Maybe it’s how fast and furiously big tech names rallied off their March coronavirus crisis lows. Maybe it’s because most mega-cap tech darlings made new all-time highs. Maybe it’s because of this Monday’s House Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee virtual hearing the CEOs of Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google face. Or maybe it’s nervousness over Facebook reporting earnings on Wednesday next week, then Amazon, Google, and Apple reporting on Thursday.

Whatever it is, it’s not looking good for big tech darlings right now.

The bottom-line is: if Big Tech falters the rest of the market’s headed lower, maybe a lot lower and maybe quickly…

Technology stocks have powered America’s markets higher for more than two decades, including leading almost parabolic rallies on the heels of every selloff, correction, or bear market since 2009.

That certainly includes “Big Tech” powering equity markets higher off their coronavirus crisis lows.

But now mega-cap technology darlings face political, regulatory, and tax threats, possibly all at once.

Investors need to know what those threats are, what could happen to big tech companies, and how the stock market might fare if big tech leadership stocks falter, exposing the market’s weak underbelly…

Despite the Nasdaq Composite ending last week down 1.1%, the other major benchmarks ended the week higher. The trend for all of them, including the Nasdaq Composite, is still, up.

But there were minor cracks in the yellow-brick road last week.

A big crack developed on Monday when the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), an important index of the biggest 100 (non-financial) stocks listed on the Nasdaq, rose 2% in the morning, breaking through to new all-time highs, then collapsed spectacularly, ending the day down more than 2%.

That kind of intraday reversal is often a turning point signal. By turning point, I mean a change in the trend.

The country’s biggest too-big-to-fail banks have all reported second quarter earnings and the results were chock full of good news and bad news, depending on the bank and its banking model.

What the banks’ earnings, profits and losses tell us about the economy, about their health, and about the outlook for their stocks gives investors a window into the economy and how to play the banks.

A window into the economy…

The stock market’s risen like a bat out of hell since bottoming out on March 23, 2020.

Remarkably, the institutional benchmark S&P 500 is up 43% after being hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

And while there’s still no vaccine for Covid-19, as the country sees dangerous spikes across 32 states, with mayors and governors again calling for businesses to shut down, as the additional $600 per week unemployed workers were getting runs out, the stock market looks clearly poised to go higher.

Here’s where we’re at, what hurdles are left to jump over, and why we’re headed higher.

With markets working themselves higher last week, higher since the March lows, higher forever for the Nasdaq Composite, you could say the good news is behind us and what’s up next will be weightier.

When I say good news, I’m not talking about the bad news all around the country showing dramatic and frightening coronavirus spikes, I’m talking about most of the economic indicators coming out ahead of analysts’ expectations over the past four weeks. Not all of them mind you, but most of them.

Why? Because analysts knocked down every number, every expectation, every hope they had.

And they were wrong. They were too pessimistic.

Is it too late to buy the FAANG stocks, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft?

In a word, “no.”

But with their valuations peaking, concentration in them at all-time highs, and pushback from advertisers, regulators, and politicians mounting, an increasing cadre of skeptics and analysts think their run’s about over.

Let’s examine the bull case and bear case for these mega-cap tech darlings and why it’s not too late to buy them.

Most importantly, I’ll show you how to make money on them going up if you don’t own them, and why and how to buy them lower if they come down.

Everyone knows shopping has changed forever. Online shopping is in, bricks-and-mortar stores are out.

Maybe not forever, but with cities, counties, and states prone to stay-at-home orders, no thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, shopping in physical stores is less appealing than ever.

Shopping malls, with their higher density, which get closed quicker than standalone stores and take longer to open, have been hit even harder by the pandemic and changing consumer habits.

For malls, suffering systemically, it’s the end of an era and the end of the line for many of them.

However, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t opportunity in their downfall…