The Hawks Are Back in Town
Alex Moschina|April 17, 2024
Editor’s Note: It’s practically here. The bitcoin halving is expected to take place in just three days. If you haven’t watched the replay of our special halving event with Robert and Shah, you need to do so ASAP. Click here to check it out now.
A band from my hometown of Detroit once sang, “If it’s too good to be true, don’t you go wakin’ me up.”
Unfortunately, that’s a sentiment not shared by Fed Chief Jerome Powell.
He broke hearts on Tuesday when he warned interest rates will remain high “for as long as needed.”
Inflation, it seems, has been tougher to stamp out than previously expected. And according to Powell, “Recent data has clearly not given us greater confidence…”
What else is new?
The shift from hawkish to dovish and then back to hawkish has made for an exciting year so far.
Powell’s latest comments exacerbated what had already been a rough few trading days.
As Shah noted in his Monday takeaways, we’re fresh off a series of disappointing earnings releases from major banks including JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and BlackRock (BLK).
On its own, JPMorgan stock tumbled more than 6% on Friday. Ouch. (Shah looks closer at what’s going on with the big banks in today’s Buy This Not That episode.)
It’s an especially concerning event for investors as banks were having a bang-up year.
The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) – which carries all the biggest names in finance – was recently up nearly 30%.
So you can see why banks were considered – until about a week ago – to be a beacon of strength.
“If [bank stocks] start to roll over,” Shah said, “then some of the energy that has moved this market higher is gonna start to dissipate.”
His key takeaway for the week? Caution is back.
Between poor earnings, higher-for-longer interest rates and – oh yeah – rising geopolitical tensions… investors are starting to raise their protective stops.
The coming weeks’ reports – both earnings and economic data – will be critical.
And as it all goes down…
Those watching the crypto markets – like us – will be closely following the aftermath of the fourth Bitcoin halving. (Get caught up on what’s at stake here.)
It’s expected to occur on April 20 – just three days from now.
That’s when many analysts expect Bitcoin to begin its rise to more than $100,000 for the first time.
This isn’t hype, either. As Robert explained in yesterday’s Total Wealth:
My own projection – based on the size of past historical moves – is that Bitcoin will pass $100,000 and move up to $165,000 per coin during this halving cycle.
And I’m not alone in this. Goldman Sachs set its price target at $100,000. JPMorgan has predicted Bitcoin’s long term price could go up to $150,000. British multinational bank Standard Chartered is predicting it will hit $200,000 in 2025. And tech investor Cathie Wood, manager of the Ark Invest Fund, pegged the upward move as high as $560,000 per coin.
In short…
Whether you stick to traditional instruments like stocks… or you dive into the fast-paced world of crypto…
It’s looking like the rest of 2024 will be a barn burner.
What else is new?
Alex Moschina
Alex Moschina is the associate publisher of Manward Press. A gifted writer, editor and financial researcher, Alex’s career in publishing began more than a decade ago when he worked at one of the world’s leading providers of academic research and reference materials. Alex first cut his teeth in the realm of investing when he joined the team at White Cap Research in 2010. There he was charged with covering emerging market trends and investment opportunities. A stint as senior managing editor and editorial director at the prestigious Oxford Club followed. A frequent speaker at conferences and events, Alex has led educational workshops across the U.S. and Canada.
