The One Thing That Will Save Apple

Shah Gilani|March 15, 2024

This apple has fallen far from the tree.

Apple (AAPL)’s stock fell 15% from its December 2023 all-time high to around $168 last week.

That drop happened at the same time the S&P 500 gained 10%… and while the real leader of the “Magnificent Seven” – Nvidia (NVDA) – soared 101% from December 14 to its intraday high of $927 on March 8.

Ouch.

So, what’s next for Apple? Can it regain its shine? Or is there something rotten inside?

Both.

There’s one thing Apple needs to do to right itself. Only then can it heal its bruises.

I’ve been bearish on Apple since August 4, when it broke down and out of the upward channel it was in for most of 2023.

The stock closed that day at $181.99, down almost 5% in a day.

From there… Apple traded in an ugly downward channel. And though I missed the bounce to the new all-time high on December 14… that was just an 11% rise.

I was still bearish on the stock… and I was right.

Apple looks ugly. Just this month, it has broken down – gapped down, actually – through its downward channel.

Will Apple keep falling? Or will it get back into that channel, work its way to the top and break out to the upside?

Here’s what I’m seeing in the chart…

If the stock can’t get above $177 and stay within its descending channel… in other words, if it remains below that bearish channel, and the general market falters… Apple’s going lower.

Maybe a lot lower.

The stock could go to $165, where it needs to see support but probably won’t. Then it’s likely going to test $159. If it can’t hold there, then $120 isn’t out of the question.

But that doesn’t have to be Apple’s fate.

Catch a Falling Knife

Three things have been ailing the company…

• An uninteresting, uninspired iPhone 15 refresh cycle
• The debut of the ho-hum Vision Pro
• And – weighing most heavily – Chinese sales that have been falling off a cliff.

Apple’s smartphone market share in China has gone from just shy of 20% to 14%. Sales are down close to 24% year-to-date.

That’s more than worrisome. That’s a real problem.

And it’s not going to get better any time soon…

The U.S. and China are in the early stages of a digital cold war, with the U.S. banning smart chip sales to China and China pushing back by pushing Apple phones aside.

Apple’s only hope is a fast-track addition of a host of fabulous new AI functionality in the iPhone 16.

That’s a huge ask.

Apple never touts fancy upcoming upgrades to its smartphones. It prefers to wow buyers with the latest and greatest new features.

No news or hints about what’s coming will keep pressure on Apple’s stock.

So I will look to buy it lower… $120 if it gets there. But I’ll likely buy in the $150s… buy more in the $140s… and buy more in the $120s.

Why would I try to catch what could look be a falling knife?

Because it’s Apple. It could turn the ship around with an AI-infused ecosystem that brings in substantially more service and subscription revenue.

For now, I’ll sit on the sidelines and wait to see if the stock can crawl back into its downward channel and then break higher.

If it tries and fails… and the market looks prone to a correction… I won’t be on the sidelines.

I’ll be buying puts.