Archives

Editor’s Note: As Chief Investment Strategist of Total Wealth, Shah believes in making his track record of recommendations easily accessible to all readers within seconds – and that’s why he’s compiled an Archives page.

Most Recent

  • Shah Gilani Sep 25, 2020
    You Don’t Need to Be a Gold Bug to Know to Buy Gold on This Dip

    I’m not a “gold bug,” never have been, never will be.

    A “gold bug” is someone who expounds the many virtues of owning gold, including that it’s a “store of value,” a “safe-haven” investment, an inflation hedge, and because its been hoarded by investors, central banks and governments the world over, it’s price is always going to rise.

    All of that’s true, to some degree, but only because so many people believe gold is all that and more.

    The reason I don’t trade gold all the time is it’s not volatile enough, meaning it doesn’t move up and down enough for me to watch it and trade its ups and downs. The reason I don’t invest in gold for long periods is because I don’t think it’s going anywhere, and I’d rather place my capital in stocks or other instruments I think are moving a lot higher.

    But, that doesn’t mean I don’t buy, sell, trade, and invest in gold, especially when I see a good set-up, meaning a set of reasons gold’s about to make a move, I’ll jump in.

    This is one of those times.

  • Shah Gilani Sep 23, 2020
    2 
    Here’s Why the Fed Pulling Another “Saturday Night Massacre” Would be the Best Thing for the Markets

    The Federal Reserve’s not the problem, or maybe it is.

    Economic growth, job creation, narrowing the wealth gap, equal opportunity in America, are the problems, but not the Fed’s problems.

    Those problems should fall on the administration in power and Congress, but instead, the Fed has made these problems their concern, and if that doesn’t change, our economy could be headed for trouble, big trouble. We’re talking a meltdown that will put the Great Recession to shame.

    On October 10, 2020, the Saturday before Columbus Day, the Fed should announce a new role for itself, one that will shake up markets, politics, and the country, but ultimately result in the problems the Fed can’t fix being addressed and fixed by presidents and Congress.

    It’s been done before. On the Saturday prior to Columbus Day in 1979, then Fed chairman Paul Volcker, the last strong, independent Federal Reserve chairman, changed America’s future.

    Jerome Powell, you’re up.

  • Shah Gilani Sep 21, 2020
    You’ve Been Watching the Bellwethers, I Hope

    Today shouldn’t be any kind of surprise to you.

    In fact, I know you saw this selloff coming because you had a roadmap with every signpost and mile marker redlined and highlighted with flashing “bellwether” levels to guide you.

    You have been paying attention to your Capital Wave Forecast, haven’t you?

    We’ve got more to go on the downside, so don’t be in any rush to buy this dip.

  • Shah Gilani Sep 18, 2020
    1 
    Everything You Need to Know About Moving Forward in Volatility-Stricken Markets

    We’ve been in for a wild ride in 2020, markets aside, we’ve seen a pandemic, a civil rights movement, and natural disaster after natural disaster – in an election year, no less.

    Markets have done exactly what you’d expect in such unprecedented times, which is to say, they’ve gone absolutely buck-wild.

    While Q3 is coming to a close, I wanted to make sure to address some crucial questions that have come out of this years’ insanity before we shift our sights to the election, what’s to come in 2021, and more.

    Here are some of your best questions, and as always, if there’s something you want to ask that isn’t addressed here, comment below and I’ll get them on the next round…

  • Shah Gilani Sep 17, 2020
    2 
    The Federal Reserve: Not the All-Powerful Oz You May Think It Is

    The privately owned and controlled Federal Reserve System, America’s so-called central bank, is more powerful than the U.S. government. In fact, it controls our government by financing particularly Fed-friendly governments, as only it can. MEET DAVID He’s got a 95% …

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  • Nathan Shulkin Sep 17, 2020
    The Three Bellwethers of the Stock Market Armageddon

    Click here to download the PDF version It’s a tale as old as time: the four horsemen of the apocalypse.It dates back to the Bible, the Book of Revelation, when the four evils of the world ride in on their …

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  • Shah Gilani Sep 14, 2020
    The Bears Have Entered the Ring: The Battle for the Bull Market Rests in the Hands of Retail

    Last week, we ended down across the board. The Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P closed a combined 8.3% lower, and it had the bears coming off the sidelines and getting ready to make their move.

    But the bulls weren’t giving up that easily, not Friday, not today, maybe not ever.

    We’ve got a way to go before we’re in bear market, although we’re tapdancing on the edge of a correction, at least when it comes to the Nasdaq Composite. But we still have lower to go, if we end up going lower, that is.

    The bears are looking to get in as the hedging unwinds, chasing Big Tech lower, and election madness begins to ramp up.

    We could be headed lower… but they key word here is could, and where the markets are headed next lay in the hands of one very specific group: the retail investors.The Battle of the Bulls and the Bears Rages On

  • Shah Gilani Sep 11, 2020
    Tesla Rolled Over, and Where it Goes Next is More Important than You May Think

    I’m not the kind of guy to say I told you so, but if I was, I’d sure be saying it now.

    That’s a joke, kind of. Because I did tell you that Tesla was the poster boy for irrational exuberance and “that one stock is a bellwether for the entire market.”

    I told you that on Friday, August 28, 2020, right here in Total Wealth in an article titled “The First Bellwether You Need to Watch to Avoid a Portfolio-Wrecking Loss.

    When Tesla rolled over, when it “corrected,” meaning fell 10%, that was the bell ringing out its warning, that was the time to make sure your stops were locked and loaded, that was the turning point for the market.

    As a bellwether it worked perfectly. Tesla hit an all-time high on Monday August 31, two days after I said to watch it. It was up a remarkable 495% in eight months. The next day it fell 4.66%. The next day, Wednesday, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were making all-time highs, Tesla fell another 5.82%. The warning couldn’t have been any clearer or louder, while markets were making new highs Tesla was down 10% in correction mode.

    We know what happened the next day…

  • Shah Gilani Sep 09, 2020
    3 
    The Tech Melt Up, The Man Behind the Curtain, and Being Suckered

    This is a true story.

    It’s about U.S. mega-cap tech stocks and equity markets melting-up this summer and how one man drove the action, suckered in retail investors, and painted Wall Street’s biggest pros into a corner. It’s also a lesson for retail traders on how the big boys play and how to not get played by them.

  • Shah Gilani Sep 09, 2020
    The Tech Bubble is Imploding…

    Valuations have been stretched and it’s high time some of that air gets let out of the bubble. The rally could go higher… but it depends on one industry, and that industry could surprise you. Click here to watch.

  • Shah Gilani Sep 08, 2020
    2 
    What Happened Last Week Was an Illusion – and It Could Bring the Market to Its Knees

    Last week was entirely an illusion.

    The week started out well, got better by Wednesday, but fell apart. And what looked like a nasty storm on Thursday seemed to calm itself down by the end of trading Friday.

    But the storm hasn’t passed, and if it doesn’t dissipate quickly, meaning by this week or by the end of next week, it could completely obliterate what progress we’ve made.

    And, if all hell breaks loose, we could easily be down 20% or more by the end of next week, or sooner.

    Here’s how you can prepare no matter what happens

  • Shah Gilani Sep 05, 2020
    2 
    Everyone Has a Plan Until They Get Punched in the Mouth: What You Need to Do When the Fed Realizes It’s in Trouble

    Just because the master manipulators at the Federal Reserve say they’re going to backstop U.S. bond markets, as well as debt on corporate balance sheets, doesn’t mean they can.

    It’s true they’re managing easily enough in the early rounds of the fight to save debt markets, corporations, and the economy, but they’re going to have to do more, including the impossible, when their real opponent comes out swinging.

    As Mike Tyson famously said of Evander Holyfield’s fight tactics to beat him in their first bout, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

    Here’s how the Fed’s managed the early rounds in its bond market fight, what’s going to happen eventually, and what you should do when Fed realizes it’s bitten off more than it can chew…

  • Shah Gilani Sep 02, 2020
    2 
    These Six Stocks Will Make or Break Your Wallet – Here’s What to Do with Them and When

    It’s never happened before. It’s totally unprecedented. A mere handful of stocks, six to be precise, are driving equity markets to higher all-time highs.

    And it’s happening while COVID-19 still threatens the country and the economy, while the country’s struggling to climb out of the worst, deepest recession in history, and while 15 million of the 20 million Americans that lost their jobs since March remain unemployed.

    However, none of that matters to the stocks powering markets higher, or the investors and analysts who say they’re going higher because they’ve benefited from lockdowns. They’ll continue to benefit from paradigm shifts in how we live, work, and play.

    The narratives surrounding these companies and their stocks are all one-sided; they’re all positive.

    The problem with that is, that positivity has turned to irrational exuberance – or, misled over-positivity. And that’s dangerous.

    Here’s how far these stocks have come, why they’re vulnerable to a selloff, and what levels to watch on all of them to know when it’s time to take profits (and maybe short equities)

  • Total Wealth Staff Sep 02, 2020
    Irrational Exuberance: The Markets are Hitting New Highs

    December 1996 is when the term “irrational exuberance” was coined, and the market’s are looking a lot like they did in 1996, especially in the tech sector. But it wasn’t until 2000 that the markets headed back down, so we have time to pull profits…

  • Shah Gilani Aug 31, 2020
    4 
    Enjoy the Melt-Up While It Lasts

    Don’t get me wrong – just because I’ve started to write about how crazy the market’s become, how it’s like déjà vu all over again, doesn’t mean I’m not bullish.

    Because I am – bullish, that is.

    Because, you know, it’s all good until it isn’t.

    Because, “as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” That’s what Chuck Prince, Citigroup’s chief executive in July 2007, told the Financial Times. The party would end at some point, but there was so much liquidity it wouldn’t be the U.S. subprime mortgage market stopping the music.

    It took another 15 months for Prince’s preamble prediction which was, “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated,” to come true, at least that part. The part about subprime mortgages not being the cause was just a little off. Just a little.

    Does that mean we have another 15 months? Maybe.

    The Dow was up 723 points last week, or 2.6%. It’s now 3.2% from its all-time highs of last February. The S&P 500 notched another all-time high last week, ending the week up 3.3%. And the Nasdaq Composite hit a record high, ending the week up 3.4%.

    Since the March 23, 2020 lows, in only five months, the Dow is up 54.11%, the S&P 500 is up 56.78%, and the Nasdaq Composite, wait for it…is up 70.47%

    But, it’s all good… until it isn’t.

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