Editor’s Note: As Chief Investment Strategist of Total Wealth, Shah believes in making his track record of recommendations easily accessible to all readers within seconds – and that’s why he’s compiled an Archives page.
Aug 10, 2020
Because it’s my nature, and because it’s prudent, and because sometimes reality bites, for the last couple of months I’ve typically interspersed my positive assessment of equity markets and forecasts why they’re going higher, with negatives, citing pitfalls, white, gray, and black swans all around us.
Aug 10, 2020
There’s nearly $1.3 trillion sitting on the sidelines, waiting to be pumped into tech stocks, cyclicals, and more – the market is still playing catch-up, and we’ll be seeing the markets going higher as a result.
This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released July payroll numbers. They weren’t even as good as the headline 1.8 million workers added announcement, but that’s another story, which I’ll get to.
The numbers, which all beat consensus estimates, making them appear better, weren’t that good at all.
But that’s not going to stop equity markets from rallying.
U.S. equity markets, as measured by the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, rocketed off their March coronavirus crisis lows and are headed higher.
The Nasdaq Composite’s already been making successive higher all-time highs and is poised to break out north of 11,000. The S&P 500’s only 87 points or 2.56% from its all-time highs, as of Tuesday’s close. And the venerable Dow, bringing up the rear, is 9.26% from its February 12, 2020 all-time highs, after plunging 11,354.92 points or 38.4% at its March 23, 2020 lows.
Stocks have bounced back, even the zombies parading around as healthy companies.
The markets have been roaring higher based on fulfilling the economic, and now market, postulate “more is always better sooner.”
But there are caveats to “more,” to “better,” to “sooner,” and especially to “always.”
I’ll touch on those later in the article – and I’ll have a special request for you as well…
In the meantime, here’s what to look out for and what’s on the other side of what’s been driving equity benchmarks higher and what could happen to them if the consequences of more, better, and sooner aren’t always and forever.
Aug 05, 2020
There’s no reason it can’t — the fundamentals are in place and there’s nothing stopping it from soaring. Here’s how to get into gold (if you’re not already!)
My favorite economic and market postulate is: More is always better sooner.
It’s never been truer.
Another favorite saying of mine is: Nothing matters, and what if it did?
And last but not least: Everything’s good, until it isn’t.
Aug 03, 2020
We’re seeing markets closing higher on Fridays, and we’ve seen terrific volume throughout the week. But seeing it on Friday is the ultimate buy signal.
Jul 31, 2020
One day after the CEOs of Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google’s parent Alphabet faced a hostile House Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee hearing, where they were each questioned about how they got so big, so profitable, and at whose expense, the four mega-cap tech darlings reported blowout second-quarter revenues and profits.
Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, feigned embarrassment in his address of the company’s earnings, almost apologizing for Apple’s flood of riches as the rest of America and the world suffer the ravages of the coronavirus crisis.
The question is now: Will these giants be allowed to keep on squashing all competition, keep on minting money, see their stock prices keep on rising? Or will political winds blowback their relentless growth and market dominance?
Jul 29, 2020
It’s time to start looking for narratives and stocks that are following what’s currently happening, and that means looking for we need – companies leading us through a pandemic and out of a recession.
Jul 29, 2020
Today Jeff Bezos of Amazon.com Inc. (NasdaqGS:AMZN), Tim Cook of Apple Inc. (NasdaqGS:AAPL), Sundar Pichai of Google/Alphabet Inc. (NasdaqGS:GOOG), and Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook Inc. (NasdaqGS:FB) face members of the House Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee, in what’s going to be a show.
And I think you know what kind of show I’m talking about.
House members are going to come out swinging because it’s an election year.
Vote-hungry Representatives want the public to see them as protectors of our privacy, pushing back on undue societal — meaning voter — influence, as promoters of equal employment opportunities within each of those CEOs’ colossal companies. And, because antitrust is the name of the game for this subcommittee, the House is going to push for equal access to the platforms, ecosystems, and consumers these giants control and profit handsomely from.
Today just might be a big deal. Today, we just might see how serious Congress is about breaking up these giants. Today, we just might hear what these monster companies might be forced to do to help struggling businesses they’ve quashed for years.
Markets, equity markets in particular, are at an incredibly vulnerable place, today and all this week. What happens, which we’ll find out on or before Friday’s close, could make or break the market.
Today, the CEOs of Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google are in the line of fire, as they virtually face, virtually, the House Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee.
Jul 24, 2020
So far, it’s been a mixed bag for tech earnings this quarter, at least as far as their reported metrics.
What hasn’t been mixed however is how investors have decidedly been selling big tech names, including selling Netflix down on less than expected subscriber growth and selling Microsoft on excellent earnings metrics, except for slower growth in its cloud business, if you can call 43% growth slow.
Something’s bothering Big Tech investors.
Maybe it’s how fast and furiously big tech names rallied off their March coronavirus crisis lows. Maybe it’s because most mega-cap tech darlings made new all-time highs. Maybe it’s because of this Monday’s House Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee virtual hearing the CEOs of Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google face. Or maybe it’s nervousness over Facebook reporting earnings on Wednesday next week, then Amazon, Google, and Apple reporting on Thursday.
Whatever it is, it’s not looking good for big tech darlings right now.
Jul 22, 2020
Technology stocks have powered America’s markets higher for more than two decades, including leading almost parabolic rallies on the heels of every selloff, correction, or bear market since 2009.
That certainly includes “Big Tech” powering equity markets higher off their coronavirus crisis lows.
But now mega-cap technology darlings face political, regulatory, and tax threats, possibly all at once.
Investors need to know what those threats are, what could happen to big tech companies, and how the stock market might fare if big tech leadership stocks falter, exposing the market’s weak underbelly…
Jul 22, 2020
Tesla’s up to $1,597, and people are calling it a bubble. It’s overvalued, way overpriced… and still going up. Here’s why.
Jul 20, 2020
Despite the Nasdaq Composite ending last week down 1.1%, the other major benchmarks ended the week higher. The trend for all of them, including the Nasdaq Composite, is still, up.
But there were minor cracks in the yellow-brick road last week.
A big crack developed on Monday when the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), an important index of the biggest 100 (non-financial) stocks listed on the Nasdaq, rose 2% in the morning, breaking through to new all-time highs, then collapsed spectacularly, ending the day down more than 2%.