Editor’s Note: As Chief Investment Strategist of Total Wealth, Shah believes in making his track record of recommendations easily accessible to all readers within seconds – and that’s why he’s compiled an Archives page.
Your Capital Wave Forecast for this week is “bullish.” For this month, for the first quarter of 2021, and for the year, it’s bullish.
That doesn’t mean we’re not on “bubble watch,” because we are.
The forecast is bullish because equity markets can continue to rise as bubbles self-deflate, get pierced, or burst spectacularly.
That’s where we’re at. That’s how strong momentum is coming out of 2020 and going into 2021. The same momentum-drivers will likely persist throughout the first quarter and probably the first half of the year.
Jan 03, 2021
Big technology companies are under attack, again. After fighting off frontal assaults for years, giants like Google, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple are about to be hit from all sides.
The European Union is nearing completion of aggressive legislation to curb big tech’s ever-widening reach and range while the U.S. Department of Justice, the Federal Trade Commission, and dozens of states plow ahead with investigations of their own.
Here’s what’s at stake for the titans of tech…
Investors Want “More, More, More” As We Head Into the New Year… Here’s What That Means for Your Money
If you’re old enough to have lived through the “disco era,” you know the song “More, More, More” by Greg Diamond and performed by Andrea True. That mega-hit was released in February 1976 and became one of the most popular and played songs in discos around the world.
And, yeah, I was there.
It’s also what investors and markets are singing and dancing to right now, particularly the lyrics: “More, more, more / How do you like it, how do you like it?”
And as former Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) CEO Chuck Prince told the Financial Times in July 2007, long after the disco era passed and right before the financial crisis, “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”
If you aren’t getting it, if you haven’t gotten the beat yet, just listen; it’s hard-driving and hypnotic. It’s about more, more, more.
If you didn’t read Wednesday’s Total Wealth, you need to because today’s picks up where it left off. Click here for the full story.
SoftBank Group Corp. (OTC:SFTBY) and its Vision Fund are promoting a new SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) which, when it IPOs, will raise $525 million.
The SPAC will use that $525 million, and at least another $200-$300 million, that SoftBank says it will provide in the form of a forward financing agreement, otherwise known as a PIPE (private investment in public equity), so the SPAC can buy a worthwhile, and maybe expensive, target operating company.
Here’s how expensive a potential target could become…
Dec 23, 2020
Since it’s the holiday season and gift-giving is the order of the day, SoftBank Group Corp. (OTC:SFTBY) is smiling on itself. It’s gifting itself with a SPAC, which, as sure as the earth’s still turning, won’t be its last.
Should you buy into this SoftBank SPAC when it IPOs? Should you buy into any SoftBank SPAC, ever?
Just when everything was looking like so many presents around the Menorah and under so many Christmas trees, the Grinch appears.
Has he stolen investor optimism, or is this just a smirky reminder that not everything’s right with the world?
Dec 18, 2020
If you want to know why I’m so bullish, all you have to do is look at the Russell 2000: It’s on fire.
The “rotation” trade has done A LOT for the Russell 2000 a lot for equities across the board.
“As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”
That’s your Capital Wave Forecast. It’s short and sweet and reminiscent of another time when markets were rocking, and investors were raking in the dough.
You might even say, “It’s like déjà vu all over again,” as famously said by Yogi Berra.
Yes, I’m still very bullish. And, yes, maybe my eyes are getting a little glassed over. After all, I’m calling for another 10%-15% rise in benchmarks in 2021 – maybe more.
But that doesn’t mean I’m blind to what’s going on.
In case you haven’t noticed, there are a lot of newly minted SPAC IPO pickup artists cruising the financial highways and byways looking to hook up with private operating companies, merge them into their magic SPACs, and exit the highway, where some will break down, if not blow up, on some dead end.
Even traditional IPOs are coming out fast and furiously, with Airbnb and DoorDash debuting this week.
Everyone in IPO Land is partying like it’s 1999. Is this “déjà vu all over again,” or is this time different?
This Total Wealth is about something different today.
It’s about you, me, and the country. It’s about the whole COVID-19 picture, at least the picture we think we see. It’s about the surge in the U.S., Europe, and elsewhere, but not in one country.
It’s about what you think is going on, what you think we should do, or shouldn’t do.
Yes, I’m “isolating” but I’m not isolated. I’ve got a huge audience here and I’m calling on you to help us all understand how you all feel. And why we’re suffering and China’s not.
So, please send me your comments, experiences, thoughts, and what you believe we should be doing.
Dec 02, 2020
Blockchain is here to stay. Bitcoin, maybe not so much.
Just because bitcoin made a new all-time high of $19,920 on Monday (enthusiasts round that up to $20,000… close but no cigar), which is “about” $137 higher than its previous high back in 2017 (all over the Internet you’ll get different prices for the old high, hence the “about,” from BBC news), it doesn’t mean squat.
Why not? Because bitcoin is like ether, or Ethereum if you prefer; it’s made up. It’s made out of, make that mined” out of, thin air.
That doesn’t mean it isn’t a store of value, though it isn’t. It doesn’t mean it isn’t digital gold, though it isn’t. And it doesn’t mean it isn’t perfectly “permissionless,” perfectly fungible, perfectly private bearer e-cash, though it isn’t.
And it certainly doesn’t mean the price of bitcoin can’t go a lot higher, because it can.
Here’s the truth about bitcoin and what you should do about it as it ticks higher…
I’ve been having lots of conversations lately with lots of investors (on the phone, by the way). And there’s something creeping into their optimism: doubt.
It’s understandable. Amidst the rampant bullishness that seems to be pervasive across all demographics of investors, from retirees and Baby Boomers, to Millennials, Gen Xers, even Gen Z, there are signs of that smack of bullishness reminiscent of 2007 or 1999, two years that preceded spectacular crashes.
Last week, a shortened trading week, saw more of the same – more record highs for benchmark indices, that is:
- The Dow rose 647 points on the week, closing Friday 2.2% higher on the week, after notching a new all-time high of 30,116.51 earlier in the week.
- The S&P 500 notched a new high too, and closed the week up 2.2%.
- The Nasdaq Composite, which had been lagging, made a new high too, ending the week 2.95% higher.
- And the Russell 2000, measuring stick of the “value” and “rotation” trades, also hit a record, ending the week up a stellar 3.9%.
Irrational exuberance? Yes, I’d say so.
Are things that good everywhere, in all sectors, in all industries, by all measures? No, I’d say not.
Hypocrisy is everywhere, even in U.S. capital markets.
Maybe it’s because U.S. capital markets aren’t really “free markets” anymore, meaning they’re manipulated by the Federal Reserve, by so-called investment banks, by fund sponsors selling thematic products that aren’t true to their mandates, and by institutionalized greed.
Now U.S. institutions are buying Chinese government bonds directly from China. Talk about hypocrisy.
American investors shouldn’t buy Chinese government bonds (CGBs), no matter how tempting they may look, nor should our supposed allies in Europe for that matter, for a lot of reasons.
Nov 23, 2020
Investors are looking past almost all bad news, anywhere, and becoming downright giddy.
Last week, Investors Intelligence tallied the percent of bullish investors it surveyed at 59.6%. That’s up slightly from the previous week’s tally of 59.2%.
At the same time, bears continued to retreat into the bushes, with only 18.2% of surveyed investors feeling bearish, down from 19.4% the week before.
All that giddiness, however, didn’t lift all equity benchmarks last week.
The Dow was down a slight 0.7% on the week. The S&P 500 was down 0.8%. But the Nasdaq Composite edged 0.2% higher.
Then there’s the Russell 2000. It rose a very robust 2.4% on the week, notching a new all-time high.
And that’s where the story is…
Nov 23, 2020
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