Editor’s Note: As Chief Investment Strategist of Total Wealth, Shah believes in making his track record of recommendations easily accessible to all readers within seconds – and that’s why he’s compiled an Archives page.
Here’s Everything That Can Go Wrong This Election… and How You Can Make Money No Matter What Happens
Just when you thought political division in the U.S. couldn’t get any worse, it’s about to.
And just when you thought the stock market was holding up, it’s puking.
Not only will the Presidential election likely be contested, Congressional candidates for seats in the House and Senate are likely to contest ballot counts in many of those races.
The discord, to be politically polite, is slicing and dicing stocks across all industries.
There’s a lot to cover in today’s issue, from what can and likely will go wrong, to how the next President might be chosen – and by whom and when.
But most importantly, the stock market might keep puking, and you’re going to want to be set up to make money as stuff hits the fan next week.
Oct 28, 2020
Alphabet Inc. (NasdaqGS:GOOG)’s Google division has a heavyweight fight on its hands, defending itself against Justice Department (DOJ) claims that the search giant is a “monopoly gatekeeper for the internet” and uses “anticompetitive tactics” to maintain and extend its monopolies in search and search ads.
The lawsuit’s prosecutors, alleging Google stifles competition and innovation from smaller upstarts and harms consumers by reducing the quality and variety of search options, will undoubtedly draw on Google’s losing battles with European Union competition regulators and on the outcome of the monopoly case the DOJ waged against Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqGS:MSFT) twenty years ago.
Unfortunately for Google, it’s not likely to prevail. But neither is the Justice Department.
Oct 26, 2020
Last week, the Dow ended the week down 0.9%. The S&P ended down 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1%.
Very much in line with what your Capital Wave Forecast predicted the week before.
This week, we’re likely to see more of the same, maybe a lot more selling, but not because of company metrics or market conditions. Rather, it may be because of the election next week, and we may feel the effects for the week after, and maybe the week after that.
There might be trouble ahead, but the grass is still green out there.
Oct 22, 2020
On Tuesday, October 20, 2020, the U.S. Department of Justice filed a 64-page lawsuit against Alphabet Inc. (NasdaqGS:GOOG)’s Google division under Section 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act.
The Complaint aims to “restrain Google LLC (Google) from unlawfully maintaining monopolies in the markets for general search services, search advertising, and general search text advertising in the United States through anticompetitive and exclusionary practices, and to remedy the effects of this conduct.”
The lawsuit, 15 months in the making, brought by “The United States of America, acting under the direction of the Attorney General of the United States,” was joined by the States of Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, and Texas.
Google called the complaint “dubious” and “deeply flawed.”
What’s at stake is Google’s stock market valuation and, to a lesser degree, Apple Inc. (NasdaqGS:AAPL)’s.
Believe it or not, last week was a positive week for stocks. It didn’t feel that way, but it was.
The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%.
It was easy to think equities were slipping last week because of waning optimism in the face of virus spikes across 26 U.S. states and across some major cities in Europe, and because two drug giants, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) and Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE:LLY) had to stop vaccine trials on account of “reactions.”
If that news wasn’t disheartening enough, jobless claims rose unexpectedly, and there was no movement on a stimulus package.
While controversy over the nomination and seating of a new Supreme Court justice prior to a presidential election is headline news, addressing the critical tech-centric controversy over Internet immunity, which includes influencing elections, will soon be before the Court.
And hardly anyone’s noticed.
But we all better take notice, because what the Court decides is going to impact the stock market and some of the biggest tech companies in the world.
No, I haven’t lost my mind, and no, I’m not blindly bullish. I’m bullish for good reasons.
Yesterday, another prospective positive for the stock market landed on my desk in the form of a report from the New York Fed on what consumers did with the stimulus checks they got and what they’re saying they’ll do with the next check(s) when they get them.
Oct 12, 2020
With only 22 days left until the election of maybe a lifetime, equity markets, as nervous as they were, are now almost irrationally exuberant.
And while equities may get tested this week because of everything that’s going on, the tone and tenor of the market is bright and strong.
But, we’ll see how that holds up when third-quarter earnings reports start rolling out…
You’ve heard analysts, and financial gurus, and pundits say, “The market just wants to go up,” which makes the market sound like it’s a living, breathing thing and makes its own independent decisions.
Well, it is. The stock market is, in a very real sense, a living, breathing “thing.”
That’s because the market’s made up of traders and investors, and you better believe they make their own decisions, even when those decisions are more dependent than independent, as they are now.
If you’re worried about negative news stories tanking the stock market, you’ve got a lot of company.
Investors are worried about what virus spikes and more shutdowns, if not lockdowns, will do to stocks.
They’re worried that companies laying off workers by the thousands means their earnings are faltering.
Everyone’s worried what will happen to the market if there’s no “stimulus” bill passed this year.
They’re worried about a contested election and how markets will deal with that.
And investors are worried about what a reconstituted Congress might do to kill the bull market.
Me, I’m not worried because there’s another side to every coin and every negative story.
Oct 05, 2020
The Dow rose 508 points, or 1.9% last week. The S&P 500 rose 1.5%. And the Nasdaq Composite rose the same 1.5%.
That’s what I call a bullish week, not because it was a rah, rah run for the high ground kind of week, simply because we ended the week up when we easily could have slid backwards.
We rose on uneventful volume, to be sure, but we rose.
Proof that it was a good week and that bulls are ready to breakout of their corral and maybe stampede higher was especially evident on Friday. After futures pointed to a hellish day ahead, on the heels of the President seen headed for the hospital on Thursday, once the market opened, buyers came in.
If you’re wondering if it’s time to get into stocks or time to go to the sidelines, you’re not alone.
While millions of new-to-the-market retail traders and investors bought the March dip, millions more went to the sidelines, parking $4.8 trillion in money market funds, more than during the financial crisis.
Now we know retail was right. And we know sidelined investors in money market funds started buying stocks in June, drawing down fund balances by $300 billion at the end of August, and sending markets to new highs.
Then September swept in and shook up everyone.
Now, just as stocks were trying to bounce off their September correction territory lows, in spite of what everyone expects will be a contested election, the President of the United States and his wife get hit by the coronavirus, and stocks are falling again.
So, investors are asking themselves, as they often do, “what now?”
The answer’s simple: start buying.
Oct 02, 2020
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Market analysts almost always use history as a guide when calculating likely stock market moves, especially when it comes to elections. This year’s no exception.
But, of all the historical references and metrics being incorporated this time around, there’s really only one that matters.
This election is going to be “contested” and only one other presidential election in modern era has been contested, and we know what the market did then.
Here’s why Tuesday’s debate almost guarantees a contested election, what the market did the last time the country waited to find out who their next president was going to be, and how you can profit handsomely by putting on an inexpensive option position to ride out the storm.
Oct 01, 2020
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