Editor’s Note: As Chief Investment Strategist of Total Wealth, Shah believes in making his track record of recommendations easily accessible to all readers within seconds – and that’s why he’s compiled an Archives page.
Jan 22, 2019
Poor, tarnished Apple Inc. (NasdaqGS:AAPL).
It did everything right for decades, making itself the first company in the history of the world to be worth one trillion dollars.
Then it fell off analysts’ conviction buy lists, and Apple’s stock got hammered good and hard.
What suddenly happened to the most valuable company in the world? How could it lose almost $300 billion in value in a matter of weeks?
Truthfully, what happened to Apple was mostly its own fault. Sure enough, it got caught up (or down as the case may be) in the market’s October selloff, but that wasn’t unexpected.
In hindsight, Apple held up better than the market last October and better than its FAANG family members did.
What took the shine right off the most valuable company in the world, after its all-time high of $233.47 in October, was the company’s announcement on November 1, 2018, not a month after its high water score, that it would no longer breakout iPhone sales in its earnings.
The stock got hammered – hard.
That self-inflicted wound, some say death knell, happened just as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had traded down close to 24,000 at the end of October, began a robust rally.
Only a week and a half into November, the Dow got back above 26,000.
Apple, not so much. In fact, not at all. Apple stock continued to slide, like it was falling off Everest.
The stock traded down to $142, just shy of a 40% dump off its high-flying act.
It’s back up around $155 today.
Is Apple at $155 or just below there a “value” stock? Is it a bargain down by more than 33%?
Or, is Apple too full of worms and worth betting against?
Jan 18, 2019
Last week, the investing world lost a man of conviction, and, for sure, contradictions – a true luminary, a pioneer, an advocate for “Mom-and-Pop” investors, a generous man, and a legend in his own time.
John Clifton Bogle, who preferred to be called Jack, died at the age of 89, leaving behind a lot.
That’s because Jack, who started The Vanguard Group, the $5.3 trillion asset management company that specializes in indexed products for passive investors, left behind an estate worth $80 million.
That’s after giving away half of his Vanguard salary for most of his working career.
But, the legend himself began criticizing the passive investing boom he’s credited with pioneering.
Whether his accumulated apprehensions and market fears will lay the myth of passive investing to rest, he won’t get to see – but we better be watching if the myth turns into a monster.
And, later, I have a special message for you about another hot topic in investing.
Jan 16, 2019
Despite a rough end to 2018, we’re off to a good start in the New Year. If earnings come out positively, that will be a boost in the right direction for stocks. Though, says Shah Gilani, we are at critical levels right now on the major indexes, if the Dow stays above 24,000 and the NASDAQ stays above 7,000, he’s all in.
On this episode of Varney & Co., host Stuart Varney, Shah Gilani, and the panel of experts discuss how the incredible defeat of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal will affect the U.S. It’s a “non-event” to us, Shah says, and if there is a hard Brexit, he believes that the U.S. market, which is the strongest market in the world, will soar higher as money moves over here. Then, later, the experts discuss the fate of social media favorite Snap Inc. (NasdaqGS:SNAP) as its Chief Financial Officer, Tim Stone, leaves the company (and $19 million) after just eight months. What does this mean for Snap and its users? It may not be good news… Click here to watch.
Jan 15, 2019
Besides the U.S. and China saber-rattling over control of the South China Sea, the reason the U.S. will never get what it really wants in a trade deal is because Chinese “trade” is how China plays its foreign policy game.
And they’re very dirty players.
What the U.S. needs to get out of a trade deal is for China to stop playing dirty, which it will never do.
Jan 11, 2019
The chances of the U.S. and China, the two biggest economies in the world and the two remaining superpowers on the planet, amicably settling the trade tiff between them are between slim and none.
Fake news that midlevel U.S. negotiators had productive meetings with their Chinese counterparts this week was just that – fake news.
That’s because something else was happening this week between the U.S. and China.
The truth is there are two reasons, one insidious and one frightening, why a comprehensive trade deal will never be struck.
Next week, I’ll tell you what the Chinese have really been doing that makes an honest deal impossible.
But first, I’ll give you the frightening reason today.
It’s been brewing for years.
Jan 09, 2019
The shifting sands of 2018 turned Shah Gilani from a “raging” bull to one of a more cautious variety. But now, a week and a half into the New Year, it’s plain to see that the market wants to go up. According to Shah, we’re in the preliminary stages of a melt-up, but we aren’t out of the woods yet…
On this week’s episode of Varney & Co., the panel of experts discusses what earnings could bring. The market, which is jittery at best as we enter earnings season, desperately wants to see strong earnings, and if things go south, the market will undoubtedly take it on the chin. And before Shah is even comfortable with jumping back into the market, the Dow must reach one specific level… Click here to watch.
Jan 08, 2019
Last Thursday, three former Credit Suisse bankers were arrested in London in connection with a fishing fraud aided and abetted by Mozambique government officials and other characters.
Indictments handed down by the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York charged the bankers and their accomplices with bribery, money laundering, and securities fraud in connection with raising more than $2 billion for three suspect companies, including a tuna fishing business marketed as guaranteed by the government of Mozambique.
The companies, with proceeds from bond sales, allegedly generated cash to pay bribes and kickbacks by overpaying $713 million for equipment they bought from an accomplice.
Corporate investigations and risk consulting firm Kroll says $500 million of the money raised is missing.
More than $50 million was paid to the bankers and their cohorts in the form of kickbacks.
That doesn’t include $200 million in bank fees the conspiring borrowers paid their bank cronies.
It’s another story of greedy, loan-pushing bankers, paying bribes, getting kickbacks, canoodling with corrupt foreign heads of state and government officials, and bank compliance departments being circumvented like subway thugs jumping over turnstiles.
Jan 04, 2019
Back in October, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) analysts Eduardo Lecubarri and Nishchay Dayal warned that $7.4 trillion of global assets managed in passive funds could exacerbate a rout the next recession.
They were wrong, but at the same time, they were right.
We’re not in a recession.
But, the escalating selloff is weighing heavily on passive investors, especially in the highflying big-cap stocks that led indexes and index funds higher for ten years.
That means passive investors are losing money and could turn seriously active any day now.
If that happens, a crash may not be far behind – and we’re getting close to market levels that could trigger active selling by passive investors.
Jan 02, 2019
For most of last year, tech stocks were the momentum drivers; but now, after a tumultuous final quarter of 2018, momentum has reversed. There are no true leaders to look to, and an aura of negativity seems to permeate the market.
On the first episode of Varney & Co. in 2019, worries are still rampant when it comes to the government shutdown. But, as guest host Charles Payne points out, investors may be surprised (and relieved!) to know that the last time a shutdown coincided with the market falling was in 1990. Rather than focusing on that, Shah Gilani later reveals what investors should be focusing on as we enter the New Year – and a new, bearish-leaning market. Click here to watch.
Jan 01, 2019
The feds might be coming after the robots – finally.
Even here, as we start the New Year, I don’t have my hopes up. But I’ll take this good news.
On December 21, the SEC charged the country’s second-biggest robo-advisor, Wealthfront Advisers LLC, and a small defunct robo-adviser, Hedgable Inc., with misleading clients.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the two robo-advisors used “automated tools to create portfolios for clients, rather than relying on people to pick investments and councel customers through decisions,” misled clients by not monitoring accounts to prevent trades that created adverse tax consequences, illegally paid bloggers whose endorsements resulted in account openings, and, in the case of Hedgeable, used only 4% of client accounts to calculate company returns.
Here’s the $200 billion question (researchers at Backend Benchmarking say robo-advising makes up $200 billion of the investment and trading universe): Are do-it-yourself investors who rely on robo-advisors being shortchanged?
Today I’ll give you my answer
Plus, I’ll show you how to protect yourself.
Oct 31, 2018
Click here to download the PDF version Dear Reader, I am by no means a gold bug. But, given some very predictable historical patterns, I believe a massive bull run could be imminent. From the end of 1999 through 2011 …
Oct 02, 2018
Total Wealth is a publication of Money Map Press, LLC. These are the terms and conditions which apply to your subscription/s to Money Map Press, LLC publications (both free and paid, online and hard copy), conference and seminars, the purchase …
Sep 25, 2017
By Keith Fitz-Gerald I’ll be right up front. Click here to download the PDF version: You may not want to hear what I have to say… You may not want to believe what I have to say… And, you may not think …
May 09, 2017
Welcome to Total Wealth. Click here to download the PDF version: My name is Keith Fitz-Gerald. For more than 35 years, I’ve worked among the global markets as a consultant, analyst, and trader. I cut my teeth at some of …
Mar 30, 2017
Welcome to the first step in boosting your traffic and customer fulfillment. Total Wealth Research takes an open approach to today’s content world. We believe that our content is some of the best financial writing in the world. Our team of …