Editor’s Note: As Chief Investment Strategist of Total Wealth, Shah believes in making his track record of recommendations easily accessible to all readers within seconds – and that’s why he’s compiled an Archives page.
Jun 08, 20202
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Jun 08, 2020
Irrational Exuberance or Nothing Matters and What If It Did
To say the market’s been on a tear would be like calling the Grand Canyon a ditch.
Last week the Dow ran up 1,727.87 points to end the week 6.8% higher. That’s half the gain in a good year. The S&P rose 4.9%. And the Nasdaq Composite, on an intraday basis, made a new record high, climbing 3.4% on the week.
All week the “honey badger” (Google: honey badger don’t give a damn) proved it don’t give a damn about China, or protests, or politics, or anything. It just keeps on going, doing what it does, keeps going.
And then on Friday, when the world was expecting the U.S. to lose 8 million jobs in May, the unemployment rate was expected to hit 20%, and the market to keep going anyway, only one out of those three things happened.
The U.S. didn’t lose jobs, it gained 2.5 million jobs. And the UE rate didn’t tick up to 20% from the previous months 14.7%, it fell to 13.3%. Of course, the honey badger did what it does.
Is it “irrational exuberance” or are investors taking a nothing matters and what if it did attitude?
Jun 08, 2020
The Bears Aren’t Dead…Just in Hibernation
People are buying shorts, the bears are plotting, and we’re looking for the next leg down… even though the markets are headed up. There will be falling stocks, but it’s not the ones you may expect to fail. Click here to watch
Jun 05, 20204
Retirees Reaching for Yield in Fixed Income Products Need to Think Twice
The free market isn’t free anymore, even though a lot of retired and soon-to-be retired folks think it is.
The truth is nothing in the capital markets moves freely anymore, especially interest rates.
Now, frighteningly, because America has morphed into a quasi-command economy where the Federal Reserve dictates economic policy, retirees don’t understand how dangerous most bonds and fixed income products have become in the new normal “socialized capital markets regime.”.
Here’s what’s being manipulated, why it’s bad, how it’s impacting fixed income investments, and what retirees and soon to be retired investors should be doing instead of putting themselves at great risk.
Jun 03, 2020
Flying High With the Airlines When They Take Off Again
Airline stocks have been essentially grounded, for very good and obvious reasons.
But, like the rest of the stock market, as the airlines see the economy opening up, as the TSA tells us there are more travelers every day, as investors rotate into cyclical sectors and beaten down stocks, tarmac tied airline stocks should benefit, big time.
That said, timing the rise of airline stocks and choosing individual names isn’t the easiest game in town.
Fortunately, there’s a simple way to play the sector in one fell swoop.
The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) is well worth looking at, if not taking a long-term position in.
This isn’t a new ETF that was put together so investors could suddenly jump into the beaten down sector. The JETS ETF has been around since 2015. But saying it’s been overlooked would be like calling the Grand Canyon a ditch.
No-one paid much attention to JETS, until it became a highflier recently.
Up until early March the fund had only about $33 million under management, that is tiny for an ETF.
As an investment or trading vehicle it was too small for me or my subscribers to bother with, primarily because of its thin daily volume and spreads that were too large to make getting in or out tenable.
Jun 03, 2020
A Tremendous Rally off of the March Lows
There’s a good chance of a rally from here, Goldman Sachs reported, and Shah couldn’t agree more. We’re slowly gaining on the all-time highs, and we’re going to go higher. Click here to watch.
Jun 01, 2020
Runaway Trains, Planes, and Automobiles
Like a runaway train the market kept barreling ahead last week, make that last month, make that the last two months, actually make that since the March 23, 2020 lows.
The S&P 500 ended last week up 3%. It ‘s up a whopping 17.79% in the last two months. And is up a mind-bending 36.06% from its March lows.
So far so good. But, there ‘s a problem. No one knows where the train tracks lead.
Markets could have gotten off track on Friday. The Dow was down about 300 points as nervous investors pared positions ahead of President Trump ‘s “conference.” But, instead of slamming China and ratcheting up rhetoric, or tossing trade war and tariff threats, the President just pointed a finger and repeated his displeasure with the Mainland ‘s heavy handedness over Hong Kong ‘s future.
And back up went stocks.
What pre-conference selling revealed is how jittery investors are, but there ‘s a lot out there that matters…
Jun 01, 2020
Looting, a Recession, Coronavirus – Oh My!
Big box stores like Walmart and Target are closing their doors to protect against looting and rioting, and, in a recession and a pandemic, how will the economy react? Not badly, according to Shah Gilani. Here’s what he’s concerned about. Click here to watch
May 29, 2020
Retail Investors Have Been Beating Hedge Funds: Is That Dangerous?
Just about everything in our lives is different, no thanks to the novel coronavirus.
One glaring difference is how retail investors have plunged into the stock market since COVID-19 slammed markets and shutdown the country.
While that’s different enough, what’s vastly different is retail investors, instead of typically selling at the bottom of a plunge, started buying early, have been buyers all the way up, and according to Goldman Sachs research, with their whacky list of favorite stocks have beaten hedge funds and their top holdings.
Since a ZeroHedge article earlier this week pointed out, “After years of trying and failing to sucker in retail investors into the stock market to allow a long-overdue distribution from top shareholders to mom and pop bagholders, as has been the trend heading into every prior recession…” maybe it’s time to ask, with stocks racing higher heading into another recession, is the new retail trend dangerous?
The answer is “no,” it’s not dangerous, at least not yet. But, “yet” could be any day now.
Here’s what you need to know is going on and what it means to your Total Wealth.
May 27, 20201
Markets Are Telling Us They Want To Go Higher: Here’s What to Do
There’s a difference.
A rally won’t let you down. In fact, a rally will give you an opportunity to make money, hand over fist, four days a week… and it only takes one hour per day.
My friend and colleague, Andrew Keene, has devised a system that can make you four-figure windfalls, every day, four days a week.
And it only takes an hour, every day.
You don’t have to take my word for it. Just ask Steve Milton, who made $250,000 with Andrew’s system.
Or Carrie Saunders, who made $3,000… three days in a row.
Or Mark Befano, who made $706,000 in only one year.
Andrew’s system made it possible for these folks to grab mind-boggling windfalls, and he can do the same for you.
He’s willing to share his secrets, all you have to do is click here.
Now, here’s what the market’s trying to tell us.. and what to do about it right now…
May 26, 20204
Capital Wave Forecast: Risk On, and On, and On, And…
Summer’s not officially here yet, but the heat sure is. Markets are sizzling and investors are feeling it.
It’s Risk On, all the way.
Until of course the heat wave investors are enjoying gets dumped on by any number of named storms brewing out on the near horizon.
Bella-Bankruptcy, Brad-Breadth, Elanor-Unemployment, Maggie-Mortgage, Ralph-Retail, and Ollie-Overpriced. They’re just tropical depressions according to bullish forecasters. At least they are for now.
May 22, 20207
A Tidal Wave of Bankruptcies Could Sink the Stock Market
Thousands of American companies are sliding towards bankruptcy. Many of them are publicly traded companies.
The Federal Reserve’s buying some failing companies’ bonds in an effort to keep them alive.
It’s not going to work.
The coming tidal wave of bankruptcies will overwhelm the Fed’s rescue efforts and could sink the stock market.
May 20, 202020
How the Federal Reserve Hijacked Free Markets and Ushered in Socialism
The Federal Reserve’s promised to be the support pillar that holds up America’s capital markets. And they’ve promised to hold up the economy.
Too bad the price America’s paying is our way of life.
Here’s the short story how the Fed hijacked free markets and ushered in socialism, and how to win our freedom back…
May 20, 2020
We’re Up By Triple-Digits
Permanent damage has been done to the economy. Small businesses have closed their doors and some won’t reopen, and one in four restaurants won’t be reopening after the shutdown. It’s time to reopen, before things get worse. Click here to watch
May 18, 20201
Looking at Earnings, So Far, Things Don’t Look That Good
Can we talk, about earnings? Let’s.
But, first, listen to what Randall W. Forsyth said to open his column titled Up and Down Wall Street this Saturday in Barron’s. He said, “The good news is the bad news can’t get worse.”
Sadly, it can. That includes earnings.
With more than 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting last week, quarterly earnings look like they’ll be down 13.8% from Q1 2019.
Maybe that’s why markets sold off last week.
The Dow lost 645.90 points on the week, closing down 2.7% at 23,685.42. The S&P 500 closed the week down 2.3%, its worst week since March 20. And the Nasdaq composite closed the week down 1.2%.
What’s interesting, in hindsight, which I’ll get to in a second, is that the Dow dropped 1,083.32 over the first three days of the week, closing Wednesday at 23,247.97, down 516.81, or 2.17% that day.
The hindsight here comes to us courtesy of Sunday’s 60 Minutes show. The big-deal guest interview yesterday was with Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Only, Jerome wasn’t on live yesterday. The show was taped from the Fed’s Washington D.C. headquarters on Wednesday, after the Dow dropped more than 1,000 points over the first three days of trading last week.
It’s not normal for the Fed chairman to grant an interview to 60 Minutes, especially in the middle of a crisis. Did the Chairman offer 60 Minutes the interview? Maybe. Because if markets were to continue getting hit Thursday and Friday, they’d be in bad shape come Monday morning, today, and a further route would be entirely possible.
So, why not tee-up an interview on Wednesday to hedge your bets come Monday.
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