Editor’s Note: As Chief Investment Strategist of Total Wealth, Shah believes in making his track record of recommendations easily accessible to all readers within seconds – and that’s why he’s compiled an Archives page.
Nov 16, 2020
Last Monday, the Dow soared 834 points (2.95%), the S&P 500 rose a robust 1.17%, and the Russell 2000 rose a crazy 3.7%, all on the news that Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine was 90% effective.
For the week, the Dow ended up 4.1%, the S&P 500 notched a new all-time closing high at 3,585, up 2.2% on the week, and the Russell ended the week up a stellar 5.4%.
The Nasdaq Composite didn’t fare so well. It was down 1.53% last Monday and down 0.6% on the week.
This morning we’re off to the races, again. It’s now Moderna Inc. (NasdaqGS:MRNA)’s turn to wow markets.
The company announced its COVID-19 vaccine looks to be 94.5% effective. That’s staggering.
For some perspective, the measles vaccine was 93% effective and essentially wiped out that plague.
Investors are taking profits in tech stocks and buying “value” and “reopening” stocks like never before.
Even if the “rotation” isn’t unexpected, the speed at which it’s happening is unprecedented.
Nov 11, 2020
It’s often said when equity markets rise in the face of negative news, economic worries, and other impediments to investor sentiment and earnings prospects, that the market’s climbing the “wall of worry.”
Newsflash! The market hasn’t just climbed a wall, it’s knocked down every wall in its path and isn’t worried about anything.
But that doesn’t mean everything’s coming up roses.
Global virus cases just topped 51.5 million. The infection rate in the U.S. is skyrocketing. Over 143,000 new infections were announced on Monday. The average daily rate of new infections in the U.S. in now north of 900,000 a day over the past 30 days.
As bad as that is, and it’s worse than investors realize, is that hospitalizations just hit a record 61,964 as of last night; that’s 2,024 more than the peak 59,940 hospitalizations in April.
How many of the newly infected millions of Americans are headed for hospitals remains to be seen, but doctors expect them to overwhelm healthcare systems faster than they’re prepared for.
Still, equity investors are all risk-on and damn the torpedoes.
It’s over. Even though there are some logistics that still obviously need to be taken care of, it’s over.
I’m talking about the election being called in favor of Joe Biden. That’s over, at least as far as the market’s concerned.
Whether President Trump continues to challenge votes and contest results remains to be seen.
But as the results of the 2020 Presidential Election blow over and news of a potential successful vaccine candidate spreads, there’s much to look forward to.
Here’s what’s on my radar this week…
Nov 05, 2020
There’s no shortage of crazy things happening in the U.S. and the world today.
But, it’s crucial to break down each event and analyze it individually, because if you don’t, you’re going to be caught in false narratives and will inevitably be overwhelmed.
This morning, Americans are rolling their heads.
Former V.P. Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 238 electoral college votes to 213 votes, as of this morning’s latest count. It takes 270 votes to win.
Important “swing states” Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada hang in the balance as I write this, with races in those states too tight to call.
But not exactly.
In the past, candidates with even the slim leads each is showing in states this morning, would have been declared “winners.”
This time around, the more than 100 million mail-in and absentee ballots cast by mail are being counted after polling-both data’s been calculated.
And that’s a problem, though others are sure to arise.
I have a ton of questions I’m asking about the election process, and I’m sure you do, too.
I want to hear from you. What questions are on your minds for me? Make sure you leave comments in the comment box at the bottom of this article on the website. I’ll address them all in Monday’s issue.
Well, today’s the day. November 3, 2020. Election Day.
Amidst the swirling of COVID spikes and market dips, we’re at the threshold of a critical moment in history.
Every so-called expert is sending mixed messages, from “Everything’s great!” to “Get out NOW,” and it’s extremely difficult to know what exactly is the right thing to do now. Do you stay in the markets? Buy the dip? Take profits and run? Sell puts? It’s almost impossible to hear any sort of real guidance amidst the noise.
But, over the past few months, ever since Joe Biden announced Kamala Harris as his running mate back in August, we’ve been doing something special here at Total Wealth: The Election Stock Watch.
Covering everything from what to buy if President Trump is reelected, to if Joe Biden enters the White House once again, only this time as President, the Election Stock Watch has been a hub that I’ve devised to help you make the best possible decisions with your money right now.
And today, one of the most important days this year, possibly in the last decade or so, I’ve compiled it all in one big 2020 Election Master Survival Guide.
Nov 02, 2020
Talk about ugly; last week was “fugly.”
Surging COVID spikes across Europe caused closedowns and some lockdowns.
The U.S. registered almost 100,000 new COVID cases on Friday, bringing the total number of infected Americans to more than 9,000,000.
Here’s Everything That Can Go Wrong This Election… and How You Can Make Money No Matter What Happens
Just when you thought political division in the U.S. couldn’t get any worse, it’s about to.
And just when you thought the stock market was holding up, it’s puking.
Not only will the Presidential election likely be contested, Congressional candidates for seats in the House and Senate are likely to contest ballot counts in many of those races.
The discord, to be politically polite, is slicing and dicing stocks across all industries.
There’s a lot to cover in today’s issue, from what can and likely will go wrong, to how the next President might be chosen – and by whom and when.
But most importantly, the stock market might keep puking, and you’re going to want to be set up to make money as stuff hits the fan next week.
Oct 28, 2020
Alphabet Inc. (NasdaqGS:GOOG)’s Google division has a heavyweight fight on its hands, defending itself against Justice Department (DOJ) claims that the search giant is a “monopoly gatekeeper for the internet” and uses “anticompetitive tactics” to maintain and extend its monopolies in search and search ads.
The lawsuit’s prosecutors, alleging Google stifles competition and innovation from smaller upstarts and harms consumers by reducing the quality and variety of search options, will undoubtedly draw on Google’s losing battles with European Union competition regulators and on the outcome of the monopoly case the DOJ waged against Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqGS:MSFT) twenty years ago.
Unfortunately for Google, it’s not likely to prevail. But neither is the Justice Department.
Oct 26, 2020
Last week, the Dow ended the week down 0.9%. The S&P ended down 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1%.
Very much in line with what your Capital Wave Forecast predicted the week before.
This week, we’re likely to see more of the same, maybe a lot more selling, but not because of company metrics or market conditions. Rather, it may be because of the election next week, and we may feel the effects for the week after, and maybe the week after that.
There might be trouble ahead, but the grass is still green out there.
Oct 22, 2020
On Tuesday, October 20, 2020, the U.S. Department of Justice filed a 64-page lawsuit against Alphabet Inc. (NasdaqGS:GOOG)’s Google division under Section 2 of the Sherman Antitrust Act.
The Complaint aims to “restrain Google LLC (Google) from unlawfully maintaining monopolies in the markets for general search services, search advertising, and general search text advertising in the United States through anticompetitive and exclusionary practices, and to remedy the effects of this conduct.”
The lawsuit, 15 months in the making, brought by “The United States of America, acting under the direction of the Attorney General of the United States,” was joined by the States of Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, and Texas.
Google called the complaint “dubious” and “deeply flawed.”
What’s at stake is Google’s stock market valuation and, to a lesser degree, Apple Inc. (NasdaqGS:AAPL)’s.
Believe it or not, last week was a positive week for stocks. It didn’t feel that way, but it was.
The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8%.
It was easy to think equities were slipping last week because of waning optimism in the face of virus spikes across 26 U.S. states and across some major cities in Europe, and because two drug giants, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) and Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE:LLY) had to stop vaccine trials on account of “reactions.”
If that news wasn’t disheartening enough, jobless claims rose unexpectedly, and there was no movement on a stimulus package.
While controversy over the nomination and seating of a new Supreme Court justice prior to a presidential election is headline news, addressing the critical tech-centric controversy over Internet immunity, which includes influencing elections, will soon be before the Court.
And hardly anyone’s noticed.
But we all better take notice, because what the Court decides is going to impact the stock market and some of the biggest tech companies in the world.
No, I haven’t lost my mind, and no, I’m not blindly bullish. I’m bullish for good reasons.
Yesterday, another prospective positive for the stock market landed on my desk in the form of a report from the New York Fed on what consumers did with the stimulus checks they got and what they’re saying they’ll do with the next check(s) when they get them.
Oct 12, 2020
With only 22 days left until the election of maybe a lifetime, equity markets, as nervous as they were, are now almost irrationally exuberant.
And while equities may get tested this week because of everything that’s going on, the tone and tenor of the market is bright and strong.
But, we’ll see how that holds up when third-quarter earnings reports start rolling out…