Shah Gilani's Archive

The news cycle this year has been crazy, crazier than ever, and this week was far from an exception. The new coronavirus updates coming from the CDC, claiming we’re seeing the “biggest fall, from a health perspective,” EVER and “sleepy” Joe Biden announcing Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate, were only the tip of the news iceberg.

I’m not going to talk about either of those things, at least not right now.

So far this year retail bankruptcy filings total 43, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

That’s only 5 fewer than the 48 bankruptcy filings by retailers in 2010, the worst year for retail during the Great Recession, and we’ve still got four and a half months left in 2020.

There could be dozens, or hundreds, more bankruptcies by the end of this year. I say hundreds because according to S&P Global in 2008 a whopping 441 retailers filed for bankruptcy.

Here’s what’s happening behind shuttered and reopened stores to demand, to supply chains and vendors of apparel companies; and who’s going to make it and who’s not.

What investors, analysts and retailers call the Amazon effect, I call the “Amazonation” of retail, of America, which happens to be just the tip of the “Retail Ice Age.”

Bricks and mortar retailers in the U.S. were just starting to come to grips with their own self-inflicted mistakes when Amazon.com Inc. (NasdaqGS:AMZN) shone an even brighter light on an even bigger mistake they were making.

Now, retailers are facing an even more deadly existential threat to their bricks and mortar as well as their online existence, no thanks to the coronavirus…

Because it’s my nature, and because it’s prudent, and because sometimes reality bites, for the last couple of months I’ve typically interspersed my positive assessment of equity markets and forecasts why they’re going higher, with negatives, citing pitfalls, white, gray, and black swans all around us.

Still, the forecasts have been bullish.

This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released July payroll numbers. They weren’t even as good as the headline 1.8 million workers added announcement, but that’s another story, which I’ll get to.

The numbers, which all beat consensus estimates, making them appear better, weren’t that good at all.

But that’s not going to stop equity markets from rallying.

Here’s the story behind the headline numbers and why equity markets are headed higher.

U.S. equity markets, as measured by the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, rocketed off their March coronavirus crisis lows and are headed higher.

The Nasdaq Composite’s already been making successive higher all-time highs and is poised to break out north of 11,000. The S&P 500’s only 87 points or 2.56% from its all-time highs, as of Tuesday’s close. And the venerable Dow, bringing up the rear, is 9.26% from its February 12, 2020 all-time highs, after plunging 11,354.92 points or 38.4% at its March 23, 2020 lows.

Stocks have bounced back, even the zombies parading around as healthy companies.

The markets have been roaring higher based on fulfilling the economic, and now market, postulate “more is always better sooner.”

But there are caveats to “more,” to “better,” to “sooner,” and especially to “always.”

I’ll touch on those later in the article – and I’ll have a special request for you as well…

In the meantime, here’s what to look out for and what’s on the other side of what’s been driving equity benchmarks higher and what could happen to them if the consequences of more, better, and sooner aren’t always and forever.

My favorite economic and market postulate is: More is always better sooner.

It’s never been truer.

Another favorite saying of mine is: Nothing matters, and what if it did?

And last but not least: Everything’s good, until it isn’t.

Put them all together and that’s the kind of market we have.

One day after the CEOs of Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google’s parent Alphabet faced a hostile House Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee hearing, where they were each questioned about how they got so big, so profitable, and at whose expense, the four mega-cap tech darlings reported blowout second-quarter revenues and profits.

Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, feigned embarrassment in his address of the company’s earnings, almost apologizing for Apple’s flood of riches as the rest of America and the world suffer the ravages of the coronavirus crisis.

The question is now: Will these giants be allowed to keep on squashing all competition, keep on minting money, see their stock prices keep on rising? Or will political winds blowback their relentless growth and market dominance?

Here’s what they face, what they’re going to do about it, and what’s going to happen to their stock prices.

Today Jeff Bezos of Amazon.com Inc. (NasdaqGS:AMZN), Tim Cook of Apple Inc. (NasdaqGS:AAPL), Sundar Pichai of Google/Alphabet Inc. (NasdaqGS:GOOG), and Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook Inc. (NasdaqGS:FB) face members of the House Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee, in what’s going to be a show.

And I think you know what kind of show I’m talking about.

House members are going to come out swinging because it’s an election year.

Vote-hungry Representatives want the public to see them as protectors of our privacy, pushing back on undue societal — meaning voter — influence, as promoters of equal employment opportunities within each of those CEOs’ colossal companies. And, because antitrust is the name of the game for this subcommittee, the House is going to push for equal access to the platforms, ecosystems, and consumers these giants control and profit handsomely from.

Today just might be a big deal. Today, we just might see how serious Congress is about breaking up these giants. Today, we just might hear what these monster companies might be forced to do to help struggling businesses they’ve quashed for years.

Today, investors just might freak out if they don’t like what they think could happen.

Markets, equity markets in particular, are at an incredibly vulnerable place, today and all this week. What happens, which we’ll find out on or before Friday’s close, could make or break the market.

Today, the CEOs of Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google are in the line of fire, as they virtually face, virtually, the House Judiciary Antitrust Subcommittee.

The big deal today will be about what those mega-cap Tech Kings are asked and how they answer.