Shah Gilani's Archive
Shah Gilani
Wall Street superstar and former hedge fund manager Shah Gilani is the Chief Investment Strategist of Manward Press and at the helm of the Manward Money Report newsletter and the Launch Investor and Alpha Money Flow trading services. He’s a sought-after market commentator and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business and Bloomberg TV. He’s also been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and The Washington Post, and he’s had columns published in Forbes.
In 1982, he launched his first hedge fund from his seat on the floor of the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He worked in the pit as a market maker when options on the S&P 100 Index first began trading… and was part of a handful of traders who laid the technical groundwork for what would eventually become the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). He also ran the futures and options division at the largest retail bank in Britain. Shah gained notoriety for calling the implosion of U.S. financial markets (all the way back in February 2008) AND the mega bull run that followed.
Now at the helm of Manward, Shah is focused tightly on one goal: To do his part to make subscribers wealthier, happier and more free.
How the Federal Reserve Hijacked Free Markets and Ushered in Socialism
The Federal Reserve’s promised to be the support pillar that holds up America’s capital markets. And they’ve promised to hold up the economy.
Too bad the price America’s paying is our way of life.
Looking at Earnings, So Far, Things Don’t Look That Good
Can we talk, about earnings? Let’s.
But, first, listen to what Randall W. Forsyth said to open his column titled Up and Down Wall Street this Saturday in Barron’s. He said, “The good news is the bad news can’t get worse.”
Sadly, it can. That includes earnings.
With more than 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting last week, quarterly earnings look like they’ll be down 13.8% from Q1 2019.
Maybe that’s why markets sold off last week.
The Dow lost 645.90 points on the week, closing down 2.7% at 23,685.42. The S&P 500 closed the week down 2.3%, its worst week since March 20. And the Nasdaq composite closed the week down 1.2%.
What’s interesting, in hindsight, which I’ll get to in a second, is that the Dow dropped 1,083.32 over the first three days of the week, closing Wednesday at 23,247.97, down 516.81, or 2.17% that day.
The hindsight here comes to us courtesy of Sunday’s 60 Minutes show. The big-deal guest interview yesterday was with Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Only, Jerome wasn’t on live yesterday. The show was taped from the Fed’s Washington D.C. headquarters on Wednesday, after the Dow dropped more than 1,000 points over the first three days of trading last week.
It’s not normal for the Fed chairman to grant an interview to 60 Minutes, especially in the middle of a crisis. Did the Chairman offer 60 Minutes the interview? Maybe. Because if markets were to continue getting hit Thursday and Friday, they’d be in bad shape come Monday morning, today, and a further route would be entirely possible.
So, why not tee-up an interview on Wednesday to hedge your bets come Monday.
Banks Are the Economy’s and the Market’s Bellwether: How to Read Them and Play Them
To make money in the stock market investors need to know how bad the recession’s going to be and how the market’s going to react to economic conditions.
One surefire way to gauge what’s going on in the economy and gauge what the market thinks about economic prospects, as well as divine the market’s direction, is by watching bank stocks.
Banks are a bellwether for the economy and the market.
Here’s why banks are a good economic indicator, how to read them, and how to play them…
Look Out Below: The Mortgage Market Is About to Revisit 2008 Crisis Woes Part II
Last Friday, I gave you this warning: The mortgage market is once again in danger, only this time the damage is going to be a lot worse, last a lot longer, and impact the housing market and the economy in worse ways than the 2008 financial crisis did.
I laid out all the details and data in Friday’s article, which you can read here, but today, I want to get into it a little bit more. It’s going to be hard to hear, but it’s absolutely necessary, since it will affect your Total Wealth.
If you thought the worst of the financial crisis was way behind us, you’re about to get a rude awakening.
Mortgage Massacre 2.0 is right around the corner.
Investors Open Up Their Wallets as the Economy Opens Up: But V Isn’t the Only Letter in the Alphabet
What a week equity investors had.
The Dow Jones Industrials rose a robust 2.56% last week. The S&P 500 rose a resounding 3.4%. And the never-not-leading Nasdaq Composite skyrocketed 6% higher.
That’s what I call getting it while you can, which is what I advised investors do last week.
While markets look crazy soaring every week, initial unemployment claims rise by an average of 4,100,000 per week; and benchmarks shot even higher last week as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 20.5 million jobs were lost in April and the nation’s unemployment rate leapt to 14.7% (wink, wink, BLS admitted it’s likely 5 percentage points higher, but seasonal and other haircutting, face-saving, adjustments wouldn’t let that headline fly), they may be right to pat themselves on the back.
That’s because the “V-shaped” recovery investors expect is self-fulfilling. I’m not talking about the economy’s recovery. I’m talking about the market’s recovery. It’s V-shaped, for sure
Call it confirmation bias.
As investors see more bad news, they see it getting closer to being the worst its going to get and that means we’re closer to turning around and that means buy, buy, buy. They see the economy opening as confirmation we’re on the other side of lockdowns, and stores and businesses opening as a reason to buy, buy, buy. Everything bad to do with the pandemic is behind us is what optimistic investors believe.
That’s confirmation bias in action.
That’s why the market’s experienced a V-shaped recovery.
More importantly, they say better than expected earnings keeps confirming their biases.
Look Out Below: The Mortgage Market Is About to Revisit 2008 Crisis Woes
If you thought the worst of the financial crisis was way behind us, you’re about to get a rude awakening.
Mortgage Massacre 2.0 is right around the corner.
Where All the Money’s Going in the Market Is Where You Should be Going Too
According to the Investment Company institute (ICI), year-to-date, investors have taken some $291 billion out of mutual funds and exchange traded funds.
But that’s not the whole story.
The ICI’s numbers represent net flows, meaning there were inflows, but they were dwarfed by outflows.
The story isn’t about net outflows, it’s about where the money went that flowed into the market.
Here’s where most of the money went and why you should follow it…
Capital Wave Forecast: Get It While You Can
I’m going to let Janis Joplin tell you what to expect and what to do with equity markets this week and this month.
“Get it while you can.”
That title lyric was on Janis’ 1971 posthumous album Pearl, and it’s what investors need to remind themselves to do.
Because the dramatic bounce off the March lows has maybe a little more to go, at least for some stocks, before markets give up the ghost of depressions past and head back down to earth, maybe below, meaning towards the fiery place way under our feet.
The Great Oil Spill Courtesy of USO and China
Shah here.
Keith started the story last week: he exposed the oil crisis and what was driving it, but the story has developed and as your new editor of Total Wealth, I am thrilled to continue the story.
To those who have been following Keith at Total Wealth for any amount of time: I promise I won’t let you down. I have worked very closely with him for twenty years, and our mottos are very similar. At the end of the day, we know there’s a way to make money – at all times – and we are dedicated to bringing those opportunities to you.
To those of you who have been following me for any amount of time: Thank you for your continued support! I look forward to continuing our journey together, bringing down the Wall Street fat cats and ringing out the stock market for every penny we can.
Capital Wave Forecast: Signs of Optimism Despite the Economy Slip-Up
Despite the economy heading down a rabbit hole, stock markets are looking up, not down.
It doesn’t matter that it seems crazy, and it yet may be just that, but investors are betting the worst’s behind us, at least for markets, and the other side of all the panic and shutting down is here.
After all, countries are reopening. Businesses are reopening. And people just want to go out…