Shah Gilani's Archive

I’m not the kind of guy to say I told you so, but if I was, I’d sure be saying it now.

That’s a joke, kind of. Because I did tell you that Tesla was the poster boy for irrational exuberance and “that one stock is a bellwether for the entire market.”

I told you that on Friday, August 28, 2020, right here in Total Wealth in an article titled “The First Bellwether You Need to Watch to Avoid a Portfolio-Wrecking Loss.“

When Tesla rolled over, when it “corrected,” meaning fell 10%, that was the bell ringing out its warning, that was the time to make sure your stops were locked and loaded, that was the turning point for the market.

As a bellwether it worked perfectly. Tesla hit an all-time high on Monday August 31, two days after I said to watch it. It was up a remarkable 495% in eight months. The next day it fell 4.66%. The next day, Wednesday, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were making all-time highs, Tesla fell another 5.82%. The warning couldn’t have been any clearer or louder, while markets were making new highs Tesla was down 10% in correction mode.

We know what happened the next day…

This is a true story.

It’s about U.S. mega-cap tech stocks and equity markets melting-up this summer and how one man drove the action, suckered in retail investors, and painted Wall Street’s biggest pros into a corner. It’s also a lesson for retail traders on how the big boys play and how to not get played by them.

Valuations have been stretched and it’s high time some of that air gets let out of the bubble. The rally could go higher… but it depends on one industry, and that industry could surprise you. Click here to watch.

Last week was entirely an illusion.

The week started out well, got better by Wednesday, but fell apart. And what looked like a nasty storm on Thursday seemed to calm itself down by the end of trading Friday.

But the storm hasn’t passed, and if it doesn’t dissipate quickly, meaning by this week or by the end of next week, it could completely obliterate what progress we’ve made.

And, if all hell breaks loose, we could easily be down 20% or more by the end of next week, or sooner.

Here’s how you can prepare no matter what happens…

Just because the master manipulators at the Federal Reserve say they’re going to backstop U.S. bond markets, as well as debt on corporate balance sheets, doesn’t mean they can.

It’s true they’re managing easily enough in the early rounds of the fight to save debt markets, corporations, and the economy, but they’re going to have to do more, including the impossible, when their real opponent comes out swinging.

As Mike Tyson famously said of Evander Holyfield’s fight tactics to beat him in their first bout, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

Here’s how the Fed’s managed the early rounds in its bond market fight, what’s going to happen eventually, and what you should do when Fed realizes it’s bitten off more than it can chew…

It’s never happened before. It’s totally unprecedented. A mere handful of stocks, six to be precise, are driving equity markets to higher all-time highs.

And it’s happening while COVID-19 still threatens the country and the economy, while the country’s struggling to climb out of the worst, deepest recession in history, and while 15 million of the 20 million Americans that lost their jobs since March remain unemployed.

However, none of that matters to the stocks powering markets higher, or the investors and analysts who say they’re going higher because they’ve benefited from lockdowns. They’ll continue to benefit from paradigm shifts in how we live, work, and play.

The narratives surrounding these companies and their stocks are all one-sided; they’re all positive.

The problem with that is, that positivity has turned to irrational exuberance – or, misled over-positivity. And that’s dangerous.

Here’s how far these stocks have come, why they’re vulnerable to a selloff, and what levels to watch on all of them to know when it’s time to take profits (and maybe short equities)…

Don’t get me wrong – just because I’ve started to write about how crazy the market’s become, how it’s like déjà vu all over again, doesn’t mean I’m not bullish.

Because I am – bullish, that is.

Because, you know, it’s all good until it isn’t.

Because, “as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” That’s what Chuck Prince, Citigroup’s chief executive in July 2007, told the Financial Times. The party would end at some point, but there was so much liquidity it wouldn’t be the U.S. subprime mortgage market stopping the music.

It took another 15 months for Prince’s preamble prediction which was, “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated,” to come true, at least that part. The part about subprime mortgages not being the cause was just a little off. Just a little.

Does that mean we have another 15 months? Maybe.

The Dow was up 723 points last week, or 2.6%. It’s now 3.2% from its all-time highs of last February. The S&P 500 notched another all-time high last week, ending the week up 3.3%. And the Nasdaq Composite hit a record high, ending the week up 3.4%.

Since the March 23, 2020 lows, in only five months, the Dow is up 54.11%, the S&P 500 is up 56.78%, and the Nasdaq Composite, wait for it…is up 70.47%

But, it’s all good… until it isn’t.

In Wednesday’s Total Wealth,I explained how there is no comparison between the 1999 rally that led to the Tech Wreck of 2000 and the 2020 rally that’s getting ever more irrational.

Of course, there are valid comparisons.

And you need to watch a few equity bellwethers to not get your head handed to you financially, and better yet, to profit from in months ahead.

Don’t worry, be happy.

The roaring tech rally of 2020, courtesy of the Great Lockdown, courtesy of COVID-19, is nothing like the roaring tech rally of 1999 that led to the Tech Wreck of 2000.

At least that’s the investing narrative making the rounds now.

The story is, everywhere comparisons are being made between the irrational exuberance that led to the Nasdaq Composite crashing 50% in 2000 and the tech rally of 2020 where five stocks have led millions of investors up the yellow brick road, is that there is no comparison.

I beg to differ…

Ever wish for an “endless summer?”

Of course, you have.

Ever wish for an endless stock market rally?

Of course, you have.

Well, at least one of your wishes has come true.

Now here we are again, facing the end of summer and wondering how many more days, weeks, months, quarters, years, decades the market’s going keep on rallying.

I’ll save you the wondering, the answer is the market’s going to keep on rallying. Until that is, one, or two, or three things happen, either by themselves, but more likely, in conjunction with one another.

Here’s what they are.